Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-04-07 · 19:58

Race 9

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-07 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. CALIFORNIATOTALITY, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by A S Cruz, won by 3/4, with LAUGH TALE second and CAN'T GO WONG third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.36.04
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 CALIFORNIATOTALITY Closed strongly B/TT 1.36.04 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · A S Cruz 7 2.2 3/4
2 2 LAUGH TALE Closed strongly XB/TT H Bowman · K L Man 11 14.0 3/4
3 14 CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · F C Lor 8 10.0 2-1/2
4 4 VOLCANIC SPARK Closed strongly B M F Poon · P F Yiu 2 10.0 2-1/2
5 6 G LINER Led early H/P/XB/TT Y L Chung · J Richards 5 12.0 2-1/2
6 1 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B Z Purton · P C Ng 14 16.0 3-1/4
7 3 MISTER DAPPER H/SR/XB A Atzeni · D J Whyte 6 15.0 3-1/4
8 12 FIGHT TIME Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · D J Hall 3 51.0 3-3/4
9 11 CELTIC TIMES B/TT K Teetan · W K Mo 1 6.3 4
10 5 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE Closed strongly XB-/B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 13 82.0 6-1/4
11 13 SUPER WISE DRAGON Closed strongly TT K De Melo · W Y So 12 17.0 6-1/2
12 8 PING HAI COMET H A Hamelin · J Size 4 35.0 7-1/4
13 9 STORM WINNER H Bentley · C Fownes 9 108.0 7-1/2
14 10 TIGER AND GOLD B B Thompson · C H Yip 10 180.0 9-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CALIFORNIATOTALITY2. LAUGH TALE+0.75L3. CAN'T GO WONG+2.5L4. VOLCANIC SPARK+2.5L5. G LINER+2.5L6. AESTHETICISM+3.25L7. MISTER DAPPER+3.25L8. FIGHT TIME+3.75L9. CELTIC TIMES+4L10. ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CELTIC TIMES (18.0%) finished 9th — the winner CALIFORNIATOTALITY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 CELTIC TIMES 18.0% 5.57 9
2 7 CALIFORNIATOTALITY 14.7% 6.78 1
3 6 G LINER 12.0% 8.33 5
4 1 AESTHETICISM 11.5% 8.69 6
5 4 VOLCANIC SPARK 8.6% 11.66 4
6 14 CAN'T GO WONG 8.3% 12.01 3
7 2 LAUGH TALE 6.8% 14.78 2
8 3 MISTER DAPPER 6.6% 15.09 7
9 13 SUPER WISE DRAGON 6.5% 15.45 11
10 12 FIGHT TIME 2.2% 45.12 8
11 8 PING HAI COMET 1.8% 54.55 12
12 5 ABSOLUTE SUNSHINE 1.7% 60.40 10
13 9 STORM WINNER 0.7% 145.57 13
14 10 TIGER AND GOLD 0.6% 163.93 14
CELTIC TIMESCALIFORNIATOTALITY — wonG LINERAESTHETICISMVOLCANIC SPARKCAN'T GO WONGLAUGH TALEMISTER DAPPERSUPER WISE DRAGONFIGHT TIMEPING HAI COMETABSOLUTE SUNSHINESTORM WINNERTIGER AND GOLD

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 22

PLACE

2 43.5

7 12.5

14 30.5

QUINELLA

2,7 196

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 77

2,14 198

7,14 47

FORECAST

7,2 257

TIERCE

7,2,14 1,393

TRIO

2,7,14 402

FIRST 4

2,4,7,14 594

QUARTET

7,2,14,4 7,182

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

3/2 103.5

3/7 127.5