Sha Tin · 2024-04-07 · 19:58

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 9 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-07 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by 1, with GRACIOUS EXPRESS second and KA YING VICTORY third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.98

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS B/TT 1.08.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung	Z Purton	T P Yung	3	128 lb	2.0	1
2	4	GRACIOUS EXPRESS CP1 H Bentley · P F Yiu	H Bentley	P F Yiu	1	125 lb	5.4	1
3	6	KA YING VICTORY TT- B Avdulla · D J Hall	B Avdulla	D J Hall	4	122 lb	6.6	2
4	7	PARTERRE B A Atzeni · W Y So	A Atzeni	W Y So	9	122 lb	44.0	3
5	9	RIGHTEOUS ARION H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz	M Chadwick	A S Cruz	6	120 lb	6.2	3-1/4
6	3	GRATEFUL HEART TT L Hewitson · W Y So	L Hewitson	W Y So	7	128 lb	52.0	4
7	8	E LEGEND K De Melo · K L Man	K De Melo	K L Man	2	121 lb	12.0	4-3/4
8	5	FASHION LEGEND TT B Thompson · C Fownes	B Thompson	C Fownes	5	124 lb	27.0	5
9	1	GOLDEN EMPIRE B- H Bowman · K W Lui	H Bowman	K W Lui	8	131 lb	19.0	16-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS (43.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS	43.6%	2.29	1	2.0
2	4	GRACIOUS EXPRESS	15.8%	6.34	2	5.4
3	9	RIGHTEOUS ARION	9.2%	10.89	5	6.2
4	6	KA YING VICTORY	8.2%	12.21	3	6.6
5	8	E LEGEND	7.2%	13.85	7	12.0
6	1	GOLDEN EMPIRE	5.6%	17.88	9	19.0
7	7	PARTERRE	4.3%	23.01	4	44.0
8	5	FASHION LEGEND	3.6%	28.07	8	27.0
9	3	GRATEFUL HEART	2.5%	39.77	6	52.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 20

PLACE

2 10.5

4 18

6 22

QUINELLA

2,4 56

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 25

2,6 32

4,6 52

FORECAST

2,4 84

TIERCE

2,4,6 348

TRIO

2,4,6 114

FIRST 4

2,4,6,7 554

QUARTET

2,4,6,7 5,034

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

10/2 363

10/4 113

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