Sha Tin · 2024-04-07 · 19:58
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-04-07 was Group 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY SWEYNESSE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by K L Man, won by 1/2, with INVINCIBLE SAGE second and FLYING ACE third. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE 1.09.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · K L Man | H Bowman | K L Man | 7 | 2.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | INVINCIBLE SAGE CP1 A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 8 | 12.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | FLYING ACE B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 11 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 10 | 4.6 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | PACKING TREADMILL SR L Hewitson · K W Lui | L Hewitson | K W Lui | 2 | 13.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 6 | 7 | WHIZZ KID V/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 6 | 69.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 10 | NERVOUS WITNESS H L Ferraris · D A Hayes | L Ferraris | D A Hayes | 9 | 41.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 4 | DUKE WAI PC-/B2/TT1 M Chadwick · P C Ng | M Chadwick | P C Ng | 4 | 49.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 2 | LUCKY WITH YOU A Atzeni · F C Lor | A Atzeni | F C Lor | 3 | 8.4 | 6-1/4 |
| 10 | 11 | TOMODACHI KOKOROE TT K Teetan · D A Hayes | K Teetan | D A Hayes | 1 | 17.0 | 6-3/4 |
| — | 6 | ADIOS TT K De Melo · F C Lor | K De Melo | F C Lor | 5 | 67.0 | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | LUCKY SWEYNESSE | 21.9% | 4.56 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE | 15.5% | 6.46 | 4 |
| 3 | 11 | TOMODACHI KOKOROE | 14.1% | 7.08 | 10 |
| 4 | 8 | INVINCIBLE SAGE | 12.1% | 8.26 | 2 |
| 5 | 5 | FLYING ACE | 10.6% | 9.46 | 3 |
| 6 | 9 | PACKING TREADMILL | 8.0% | 12.44 | 5 |
| 7 | 2 | LUCKY WITH YOU | 7.4% | 13.58 | 9 |
| 8 | 10 | NERVOUS WITNESS | 4.8% | 20.64 | 7 |
| 9 | 7 | WHIZZ KID | 3.6% | 27.68 | 6 |
| 10 | 4 | DUKE WAI | 1.9% | 52.11 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 20
PLACE
1 11.5
5 29
8 30
QUINELLA
1,8 126
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 43.5
1,8 47.5
5,8 138.5
FORECAST
1,8 204
TIERCE
1,8,5 1,103
TRIO
1,5,8 346
FIRST 4
1,3,5,8 178
QUARTET
1,8,5,3 3,061
All pools (1 more)
6TH DOUBLE
4/1 74.5
4/8 83