Happy Valley · 2024-04-10 · 18:41
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | NICE BIRDIE Closed strongly TT 2.18.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C S Shum | C L Chau | C S Shum | 5 | 7.3 | N |
| 2 | 4 | HAPPY HERO Closed strongly B L Hewitson · M Newnham | L Hewitson | M Newnham | 2 | 9.6 | N |
| 3 | 3 | COLOURFUL BARON B-/TT Z Purton · J Richards | Z Purton | J Richards | 11 | 6.2 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | GOLDEN FAIRY Led early A Badel · W Y So | A Badel | W Y So | 7 | 8.5 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 8 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM H/TT M F Poon · Y S Tsui | M F Poon | Y S Tsui | 3 | 11.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | LOYAL AMBITION K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 10 | 5.7 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 9 | DIAMOND WINNER Closed strongly H B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 9 | 8.9 | 5 |
| 8 | 5 | SUPERB DADDY Closed strongly TT H Bowman · Y S Tsui | H Bowman | Y S Tsui | 1 | 6.4 | 7-1/4 |
| 9 | 11 | GREEN LASER PC/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 4 | 12.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | SUNNY SHINES A Atzeni · P C Ng | A Atzeni | P C Ng | 8 | 31.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | VINCY SR-/B2/TT A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 6 | 20.0 | 8-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-04-10 was Class 5 over 2200m, run on GOOD going. NICE BIRDIE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C S Shum, won by N, with HAPPY HERO second and COLOURFUL BARON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 5.7 favourite LOYAL AMBITION finished 6th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | NICE BIRDIE | 17.4% | 5.73 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | COLOURFUL BARON | 14.3% | 6.99 | 3 |
| 3 | 9 | DIAMOND WINNER | 13.5% | 7.41 | 7 |
| 4 | 5 | SUPERB DADDY | 13.3% | 7.53 | 8 |
| 5 | 7 | LOYAL AMBITION | 12.1% | 8.29 | 6 |
| 6 | 10 | GOLDEN FAIRY | 8.8% | 11.35 | 4 |
| 7 | 8 | ARTHUR'S KINGDOM | 6.5% | 15.35 | 5 |
| 8 | 4 | HAPPY HERO | 5.5% | 18.19 | 2 |
| 9 | 11 | GREEN LASER | 5.0% | 20.19 | 9 |
| 10 | 6 | VINCY | 1.9% | 53.38 | 11 |
| 11 | 1 | SUNNY SHINES | 1.7% | 57.26 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 73
PLACE
2 24.5
3 26
4 29.5
QUINELLA
2,4 317
QUINELLA PLACE
2,3 88
2,4 116.5
3,4 103
FORECAST
2,4 655
TIERCE
2,4,3 4,714
TRIO
2,3,4 751
FIRST 4
2,3,4,10 1,415
QUARTET
2,4,3,10 39,489