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Happy Valley · 2024-04-10 · 16:51

Race 7

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-04-10 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. CAPITAL LEGEND, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with FOREMOST TEDDY second and GALLANT VALOUR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.7 favourite JOYFUL PROSPERITY finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.41.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 CAPITAL LEGEND Closed strongly TT 1.41.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes 3 4.3 N
2 9 FOREMOST TEDDY B/TT K De Melo · C S Shum 6 42.0 N
3 4 GALLANT VALOUR Closed strongly B-/PC1/TT Z Purton · J Richards 1 4.1 2-1/2
4 6 MASTER TORNADO Led early PC/TT K Teetan · W Y So 4 12.0 2-3/4
5 10 JOYFUL PROSPERITY Closed strongly K C Leung · C W Chang 5 3.7 3-1/4
6 5 I CAN B-/H/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 9 24.0 3-1/4
7 7 HARRY'S HERO H/XB M F Poon · P F Yiu 12 15.0 4
8 11 WINNING SEVEN Closed strongly XB/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 8 47.0 4
9 3 WIN WIN FIGHTER Closed strongly B L Hewitson · K W Lui 7 25.0 6
10 1 D STAR B/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 2 6.7 6
11 8 CHATER GOLD Closed strongly CP B Thompson · D A Hayes 11 59.0 6-3/4
12 12 DRAGON PRIDE A Badel · T P Yung 10 27.0 11

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CAPITAL LEGEND2. FOREMOST TEDDY+0.05L3. GALLANT VALOUR+2.5L4. MASTER TORNADO+2.75L5. JOYFUL PROSPERITY+3.25L6. I CAN+3.25L7. HARRY'S HERO+4L8. WINNING SEVEN+4L9. WIN WIN FIGHTER+6L10. D STAR+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick GALLANT VALOUR (31.0%) finished 3rd — the winner CAPITAL LEGEND was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 GALLANT VALOUR 31.0% 3.23 3
2 2 CAPITAL LEGEND 20.5% 4.87 1
3 10 JOYFUL PROSPERITY 10.4% 9.58 5
4 1 D STAR 8.2% 12.14 10
5 6 MASTER TORNADO 8.1% 12.32 4
6 5 I CAN 5.2% 19.41 6
7 3 WIN WIN FIGHTER 3.6% 27.72 9
8 12 DRAGON PRIDE 3.4% 29.01 12
9 7 HARRY'S HERO 3.3% 29.86 7
10 9 FOREMOST TEDDY 2.3% 42.74 2
11 8 CHATER GOLD 1.9% 51.55 11
12 11 WINNING SEVEN 1.9% 53.04 8
GALLANT VALOURCAPITAL LEGEND — wonJOYFUL PROSPERITYD STARMASTER TORNADOI CANWIN WIN FIGHTERDRAGON PRIDEHARRY'S HEROFOREMOST TEDDYCHATER GOLDWINNING SEVEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 43.5

PLACE

2 16.5

4 17.5

9 100

QUINELLA

2,9 912

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 41.5

2,9 262

4,9 263.5

FORECAST

2,9 1,630

TIERCE

2,9,4 11,184

TRIO

2,4,9 1,188

FIRST 4

2,4,6,9 2,759

QUARTET

2,9,4,6 84,523

All pools (3 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,9,11/2,4,9 272,421

6TH DOUBLE

9/2 243

9/9 677

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,9,11/1,9,11/Any Combination 145,647