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Happy Valley · 2024-04-10 · 16:51

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-04-10 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. IVY LEAGUE, ridden by K De Melo and trained by D J Whyte, won by NOSE, with SIMPLY MAVERICK second and CHAIN OF GOLD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite SIMPLY MAVERICK finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.41.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 IVY LEAGUE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT 1.41.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · D J Whyte 3 8.7 NOSE
2 3 SIMPLY MAVERICK Closed strongly Z Purton · P F Yiu 5 2.6 NOSE
3 12 CHAIN OF GOLD Closed strongly CP-/H/TT L Hewitson · W K Mo 12 44.0 1/2
4 4 NOBLE PURSUIT Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 11.0 3/4
5 6 EIGHTEEN PALMS B/TT A Badel · C S Shum 8 29.0 1
6 1 HAMERON Closed strongly TT H Bowman · K W Lui 9 11.0 1-1/4
7 9 RED MAJESTY B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 6 18.0 1-3/4
8 5 SHOW RESPECT B/XB H Bentley · M Newnham 2 4.3 2
9 11 SMILING TIME V/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting 4 45.0 2-1/2
10 2 WINNING DRAGON B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 1 14.0 2-1/2
11 7 LOVERO Led early TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 9.9 2-3/4
12 10 TRADITION B M F Poon · P C Ng 10 129.0 4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. IVY LEAGUE2. SIMPLY MAVERICK+0.05L3. CHAIN OF GOLD+0.5L4. NOBLE PURSUIT+0.75L5. EIGHTEEN PALMS+1L6. HAMERON+1.25L7. RED MAJESTY+1.75L8. SHOW RESPECT+2L9. SMILING TIME+2.5L10. WINNING DRAGON+2.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SHOW RESPECT (20.3%) finished 8th — the winner IVY LEAGUE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 SHOW RESPECT 20.3% 4.94 8
2 3 SIMPLY MAVERICK 15.9% 6.29 2
3 9 RED MAJESTY 10.7% 9.35 7
4 7 LOVERO 10.5% 9.55 11
5 2 WINNING DRAGON 9.3% 10.70 10
6 4 NOBLE PURSUIT 9.0% 11.14 4
7 6 EIGHTEEN PALMS 6.8% 14.65 5
8 1 HAMERON 6.7% 14.92 6
9 8 IVY LEAGUE 5.4% 18.36 1
10 11 SMILING TIME 2.7% 36.37 9
11 12 CHAIN OF GOLD 2.0% 49.55 3
12 10 TRADITION 0.6% 158.08 12
SHOW RESPECTSIMPLY MAVERICKRED MAJESTYLOVEROWINNING DRAGONNOBLE PURSUITEIGHTEEN PALMSHAMERONIVY LEAGUE — wonSMILING TIMECHAIN OF GOLDTRADITION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 87

PLACE

3 12.5

8 32.5

12 86.5

QUINELLA

3,8 160.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 65

3,12 181

8,12 598

FORECAST

8,3 488

TIERCE

8,3,12 10,617

TRIO

3,8,12 1,552

FIRST 4

3,4,8,12 5,571

QUARTET

8,3,12,4 141,910

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

2/3 29.5

2/8 674