Happy Valley · 2024-04-10 · 16:51

Race 3

Class 2 GOOD 1650m Course B 8 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-04-10 was Class 2 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. MOMENTS IN TIME, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with OUTGATE second and MR ASCENDENCY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.3 favourite OUTGATE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.39.31

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	MOMENTS IN TIME Closed strongly TT 1.39.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C S Shum	Z Purton	C S Shum	5	123 lb	3.6	SH
2	8	OUTGATE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz	Y L Chung	A S Cruz	7	111 lb	3.3	SH
3	2	MR ASCENDENCY Closed strongly TT H Bentley · P F Yiu	H Bentley	P F Yiu	4	131 lb	6.7	2-1/2
4	1	TELECOM FIGHTERS Led early L Hewitson · Y S Tsui	L Hewitson	Y S Tsui	1	135 lb	11.0	2-3/4
5	5	GALAXY WITNESS Closed strongly A Badel · C Fownes	A Badel	C Fownes	2	117 lb	3.7	3
6	6	RISING FROM ASHES Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · C W Chang	K Teetan	C W Chang	3	117 lb	22.0	4-1/2
7	4	KEEFY B- K C Leung · F C Lor	K C Leung	F C Lor	8	120 lb	39.0	4-3/4
8	7	FIND MY LOVE TT A Atzeni · K L Man	A Atzeni	K L Man	6	116 lb	14.0	5

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24

The model's top pick MOMENTS IN TIME (25.7%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	3	MOMENTS IN TIME	25.7%	3.90	1	3.6
2	5	GALAXY WITNESS	24.0%	4.17	5	3.7
3	8	OUTGATE	21.4%	4.68	2	3.3
4	2	MR ASCENDENCY	10.2%	9.81	3	6.7
5	7	FIND MY LOVE	7.3%	13.73	8	14.0
6	1	TELECOM FIGHTERS	5.3%	18.86	4	11.0
7	4	KEEFY	4.3%	23.39	7	39.0
8	6	RISING FROM ASHES	1.9%	52.83	6	22.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 36

PLACE

2 20.5

3 13.5

8 13

QUINELLA

3,8 58

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 44.5

2,8 42

3,8 27

FORECAST

3,8 147

TIERCE

3,8,2 471

TRIO

2,3,8 102

FIRST 4

1,2,3,8 101

QUARTET

3,8,2,1 1,673

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

5,6,10/2,3,8 1,070,131

2ND DOUBLE

5/3 338

5/8 53

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