Happy Valley · 2024-05-08 · 10:41
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-08 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HERO STAR, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/4, with MY INTELLIGENT second and SAME TO YOU third. The 3.4 favourite DOUBLE SHOW finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | HERO STAR TT 1.10.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · K L Man | Y L Chung | K L Man | 4 | 4.4 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 1 | MY INTELLIGENT V/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 9 | 4.2 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 8 | SAME TO YOU H/P/TT B Avdulla · M Newnham | B Avdulla | M Newnham | 11 | 53.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 10 | DOUBLE SHOW B/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte | L Ferraris | D J Whyte | 1 | 3.4 | 2 |
| 5 | 9 | GENERAL ACE CP C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 3 | 12.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 5 | ALLOY KING V H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 8 | 23.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | VAMOS B H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 10 | 12.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 8 | 11 | H Z TOURBILLON TT B Thompson · T P Yung | B Thompson | T P Yung | 2 | 10.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 4 | WOODFIRE CHAMP TT A Atzeni · C W Chang | A Atzeni | C W Chang | 6 | 16.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 3 | THE CONCENTRATION P-/PC1 K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 7 | 62.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 7 | FIRE BALL CP A Hamelin · C H Yip | A Hamelin | C H Yip | 5 | 15.0 | 9-1/2 |
| — | 2 | YOUTH POWER M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | MY INTELLIGENT | 20.7% | 4.84 | 2 |
| 2 | 10 | DOUBLE SHOW | 14.1% | 7.12 | 4 |
| 3 | 6 | HERO STAR | 13.4% | 7.48 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | WOODFIRE CHAMP | 11.5% | 8.67 | 9 |
| 5 | 12 | VAMOS | 10.6% | 9.41 | 7 |
| 6 | 11 | H Z TOURBILLON | 8.9% | 11.18 | 8 |
| 7 | 7 | FIRE BALL | 5.6% | 17.74 | 11 |
| 8 | 9 | GENERAL ACE | 4.7% | 21.47 | 5 |
| 9 | 8 | SAME TO YOU | 4.5% | 22.17 | 3 |
| 10 | 5 | ALLOY KING | 3.8% | 26.11 | 6 |
| 11 | 3 | THE CONCENTRATION | 2.2% | 45.92 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
6 44.5
PLACE
1 16
6 17.5
8 120.5
QUINELLA
1,6 86
QUINELLA PLACE
1,6 37.5
1,8 287
6,8 323
FORECAST
6,1 206
TIERCE
6,1,8 4,893
TRIO
1,6,8 1,230
FIRST 4
1,6,8,10 901
QUARTET
6,1,8,10 23,586