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Happy Valley · 2024-05-08 · 10:41

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1200m Course B 11 runners

Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-08 was Class 5 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HERO STAR, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by K L Man, won by 1-1/4, with MY INTELLIGENT second and SAME TO YOU third. The 3.4 favourite DOUBLE SHOW finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.10.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 HERO STAR TT 1.10.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · K L Man 4 4.4 1-1/4
2 1 MY INTELLIGENT V/TT Z Purton · W Y So 9 4.2 1-1/4
3 8 SAME TO YOU H/P/TT B Avdulla · M Newnham 11 53.0 2
4 10 DOUBLE SHOW B/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 1 3.4 2
5 9 GENERAL ACE CP C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 12.0 2-1/4
6 5 ALLOY KING V H Bentley · K H Ting 8 23.0 2-3/4
7 12 VAMOS B H Bowman · D J Hall 10 12.0 2-3/4
8 11 H Z TOURBILLON TT B Thompson · T P Yung 2 10.0 5
9 4 WOODFIRE CHAMP TT A Atzeni · C W Chang 6 16.0 5
10 3 THE CONCENTRATION P-/PC1 K C Leung · P F Yiu 7 62.0 7
11 7 FIRE BALL CP A Hamelin · C H Yip 5 15.0 9-1/2
2 YOUTH POWER M L Yeung · D A Hayes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HERO STAR2. MY INTELLIGENT+1.25L3. SAME TO YOU+2L4. DOUBLE SHOW+2L5. GENERAL ACE+2.25L6. ALLOY KING+2.75L7. VAMOS+2.75L8. H Z TOURBILLON+5L9. WOODFIRE CHAMP+5L10. THE CONCENTRATION+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MY INTELLIGENT (20.7%) finished 2nd — the winner HERO STAR was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 MY INTELLIGENT 20.7% 4.84 2
2 10 DOUBLE SHOW 14.1% 7.12 4
3 6 HERO STAR 13.4% 7.48 1
4 4 WOODFIRE CHAMP 11.5% 8.67 9
5 12 VAMOS 10.6% 9.41 7
6 11 H Z TOURBILLON 8.9% 11.18 8
7 7 FIRE BALL 5.6% 17.74 11
8 9 GENERAL ACE 4.7% 21.47 5
9 8 SAME TO YOU 4.5% 22.17 3
10 5 ALLOY KING 3.8% 26.11 6
11 3 THE CONCENTRATION 2.2% 45.92 10
MY INTELLIGENTDOUBLE SHOWHERO STAR — wonWOODFIRE CHAMPVAMOSH Z TOURBILLONFIRE BALLGENERAL ACESAME TO YOUALLOY KINGTHE CONCENTRATION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 44.5

PLACE

1 16

6 17.5

8 120.5

QUINELLA

1,6 86

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 37.5

1,8 287

6,8 323

FORECAST

6,1 206

TIERCE

6,1,8 4,893

TRIO

1,6,8 1,230

FIRST 4

1,6,8,10 901

QUARTET

6,1,8,10 23,586