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Happy Valley · 2024-05-08 · 14:18

Race 8

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-08 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. ATOMIC BEAUTY, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with SIXTH GENERATION second and CAN'T GO WONG third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite CAN'T GO WONG finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.41.26
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 ATOMIC BEAUTY Closed strongly V/TT 1.41.26 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · A S Cruz 6 6.3 1-1/4
2 1 SIXTH GENERATION Closed strongly B-/H/CP2/TT C Y Ho · J Richards 7 7.9 1-1/4
3 6 CAN'T GO WONG Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · F C Lor 2 3.4 1-1/4
4 3 COMET SPLENDIDO Led early TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 8 14.0 1-3/4
5 9 THE KHAN Closed strongly H/SR A Atzeni · C Fownes 4 12.0 2-3/4
6 5 SURE JOYFUL TT M F Poon · P F Yiu 1 4.1 3-1/2
7 11 INVINCIBLE MISSILE Closed strongly XB B Thompson · C Fownes 5 19.0 4-3/4
8 4 BEER PALACE Closed strongly B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 12 18.0 7-1/4
9 12 SUNNY BABY M L Yeung · D A Hayes 9 57.0 7-3/4
10 2 TRADITION Closed strongly B- E C W Wong · P C Ng 11 89.0 9-1/2
11 7 LINK SR/XB K Teetan · D J Whyte 10 44.0 10-1/2
12 8 SUPER WISE DRAGON TT K De Melo · W Y So 3 11.0 13

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ATOMIC BEAUTY2. SIXTH GENERATION+1.25L3. CAN'T GO WONG+1.25L4. COMET SPLENDIDO+1.75L5. THE KHAN+2.75L6. SURE JOYFUL+3.5L7. INVINCIBLE MISSILE+4.75L8. BEER PALACE+7.25L9. SUNNY BABY+7.75L10. TRADITION+9.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CAN'T GO WONG (23.5%) finished 3rd — the winner ATOMIC BEAUTY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 CAN'T GO WONG 23.5% 4.25 3
2 10 ATOMIC BEAUTY 15.9% 6.30 1
3 5 SURE JOYFUL 15.1% 6.64 6
4 8 SUPER WISE DRAGON 9.0% 11.07 12
5 1 SIXTH GENERATION 7.6% 13.10 2
6 9 THE KHAN 6.7% 14.82 5
7 3 COMET SPLENDIDO 6.6% 15.09 4
8 4 BEER PALACE 5.9% 16.92 8
9 11 INVINCIBLE MISSILE 4.5% 21.98 7
10 7 LINK 2.9% 34.95 11
11 12 SUNNY BABY 1.4% 69.85 9
12 2 TRADITION 0.7% 137.30 10
CAN'T GO WONGATOMIC BEAUTY — wonSURE JOYFULSUPER WISE DRAGONSIXTH GENERATIONTHE KHANCOMET SPLENDIDOBEER PALACEINVINCIBLE MISSILELINKSUNNY BABYTRADITION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 63

PLACE

1 24.5

6 15.5

10 21

QUINELLA

1,10 305

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 59.5

1,10 96.5

6,10 43.5

FORECAST

10,1 634

TIERCE

10,1,6 1,991

TRIO

1,6,10 235

FIRST 4

1,3,6,10 491

QUARTET

10,1,6,3 13,401

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

5/1 95

5/10 417