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Happy Valley · 2024-05-08 · 11:12

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. NEW POWER, ridden by K Teetan and trained by C W Chang, won by 1/2, with LEAN MASTER second and CHATEAUNEUF third. The 3.2 favourite LEAN MASTER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.03
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 NEW POWER H 1.10.03 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · C W Chang 7 7.0 1/2
2 8 LEAN MASTER B/TT E C W Wong · C H Yip 1 3.2 1/2
3 1 CHATEAUNEUF TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 11 6.2 1
4 11 COLONEL V M F Poon · P F Yiu 3 6.5 3-1/2
5 6 MR VALIANT B Avdulla · D J Hall 4 7.1 3-3/4
6 10 LUCKY QUALITY V/TT Y L Chung · C Fownes 5 23.0 4-1/4
7 9 SUPER GLORY B A Atzeni · P C Ng 9 40.0 6-1/2
8 3 EVER SMART H Bentley · F C Lor 6 11.0 7-1/4
9 4 FOXHUNTER KING H T Mo · K W Lui 10 91.0 7-1/2
10 7 FLYING PHANTOM H A Badel · J Size 8 14.0 7-1/2
11 5 WIN SPEED B1 B Thompson · M Newnham 2 24.0 10
12 2 ACE ONE B/TT H Bowman · D J Whyte 12 28.0 10-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NEW POWER2. LEAN MASTER+0.5L3. CHATEAUNEUF+1L4. COLONEL+3.5L5. MR VALIANT+3.75L6. LUCKY QUALITY+4.25L7. SUPER GLORY+6.5L8. EVER SMART+7.25L9. FOXHUNTER KING+7.5L10. FLYING PHANTOM+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CHATEAUNEUF (24.8%) finished 3rd — the winner NEW POWER was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 CHATEAUNEUF 24.8% 4.03 3
2 8 LEAN MASTER 19.8% 5.05 2
3 11 COLONEL 11.7% 8.58 4
4 12 NEW POWER 9.1% 11.02 1
5 6 MR VALIANT 7.5% 13.27 5
6 3 EVER SMART 6.1% 16.33 8
7 10 LUCKY QUALITY 6.0% 16.79 6
8 7 FLYING PHANTOM 5.9% 16.84 10
9 9 SUPER GLORY 3.9% 25.58 7
10 2 ACE ONE 2.6% 37.87 12
11 4 FOXHUNTER KING 1.9% 52.34 9
12 5 WIN SPEED 0.7% 147.47 11
CHATEAUNEUFLEAN MASTERCOLONELNEW POWER — wonMR VALIANTEVER SMARTLUCKY QUALITYFLYING PHANTOMSUPER GLORYACE ONEFOXHUNTER KINGWIN SPEED

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 70.5

PLACE

1 23

8 15.5

12 23

QUINELLA

8,12 125

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 50

1,12 74

8,12 50.5

FORECAST

12,8 293

TIERCE

12,8,1 1,372

TRIO

1,8,12 216

FIRST 4

1,8,11,12 322

QUARTET

12,8,1,11 7,884

All pools (1 more)

1ST DOUBLE

6/8 30

6/12 326