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Happy Valley · 2024-05-08 · 12:43

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. RIGHTEOUS ARION, ridden by H Bowman and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with TELECOM SPEED second and FALCON COURT third. Victory came as the 3.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.11.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 RIGHTEOUS ARION H-/TT 1.11.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · A S Cruz 12 3.9 N
2 2 TELECOM SPEED K Teetan · Y S Tsui 6 6.1 N
3 12 FALCON COURT CP1/TT A Atzeni · D A Hayes 4 19.0 3/4
4 9 ROARING BEBE XB Z Purton · D J Hall 1 4.4 1-3/4
5 6 SEA SAPPHIRE PC A Badel · P C Ng 3 3.9 2-3/4
6 3 ERNEST FEELING B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 9 28.0 3-1/2
7 8 PARTY WARRIOR B/TT1 K De Melo · C S Shum 7 11.0 3-3/4
8 11 MASSIVE TALENT CP/TT B Avdulla · M Newnham 11 28.0 4-1/2
9 7 DEEP PURSUIT H/TT H Bentley · C Fownes 2 82.0 5-1/4
10 5 VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE XB1 M F Poon · P F Yiu 8 21.0 5-3/4
11 4 SAVVY CHIC V/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 10 61.0 11-1/2
12 10 SUPER TEN B/TT B Thompson · C W Chang 5 39.0 16-1/4
0 HELLS BELLS L Ferraris · D J Whyte
0 SUGAR BALL M L Yeung · W K Mo

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RIGHTEOUS ARION2. TELECOM SPEED+0.05L3. FALCON COURT+0.75L4. ROARING BEBE+1.75L5. SEA SAPPHIRE+2.75L6. ERNEST FEELING+3.5L7. PARTY WARRIOR+3.75L8. MASSIVE TALENT+4.5L9. DEEP PURSUIT+5.25L10. VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE+5.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SEA SAPPHIRE (22.6%) finished 5th — the winner RIGHTEOUS ARION was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 SEA SAPPHIRE 22.6% 4.42 5
2 9 ROARING BEBE 19.6% 5.10 4
3 8 PARTY WARRIOR 11.3% 8.84 7
4 1 RIGHTEOUS ARION 10.4% 9.60 1
5 2 TELECOM SPEED 10.0% 9.98 2
6 12 FALCON COURT 8.0% 12.54 3
7 4 SAVVY CHIC 5.7% 17.50 11
8 5 VICTORYTHIRTYTHREE 4.4% 22.69 10
9 11 MASSIVE TALENT 3.1% 32.44 8
10 3 ERNEST FEELING 3.0% 33.49 6
11 10 SUPER TEN 0.9% 107.90 12
12 7 DEEP PURSUIT 0.9% 108.41 9
SEA SAPPHIREROARING BEBEPARTY WARRIORRIGHTEOUS ARION — wonTELECOM SPEEDFALCON COURTSAVVY CHICVICTORYTHIRTYTHREEMASSIVE TALENTERNEST FEELINGSUPER TENDEEP PURSUIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 39

PLACE

1 15.5

2 18.5

12 49.5

QUINELLA

1,2 101

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 38.5

1,12 136

2,12 172

FORECAST

1,2 172

TIERCE

1,2,12 1,956

TRIO

1,2,12 548

FIRST 4

1,2,9,12 702

QUARTET

1,2,12,9 11,144

All pools (3 more)

1ST TREBLE

11/5/1 8,401

11/5/2 2,042

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

5,7,11/1,2,12 102,454

4TH DOUBLE

5/1 1,013.5

5/2 220.5