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Happy Valley · 2024-05-08 · 13:12

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-05-08 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. ESCAPE ROUTE, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by SH, with FOREVER GLORIOUS second and STORM WINNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.7 favourite MR ALADDIN finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.50.83
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 ESCAPE ROUTE Closed strongly H 1.50.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size 12 10.0 SH
2 7 FOREVER GLORIOUS Led early B/TT K Teetan · K W Lui 3 4.8 SH
3 5 STORM WINNER Closed strongly C Y Ho · C Fownes 7 32.0 1-3/4
4 8 MR ALADDIN B Z Purton · P C Ng 9 4.7 1-3/4
5 6 FLYING SILVER Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 6 9.3 2-3/4
6 9 CHATER GOLD CP K C Leung · D A Hayes 1 34.0 4
7 2 SERANGOON Closed strongly CP/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 11 10.0 4-1/4
8 4 PRECISE EXPRESS H A Atzeni · P F Yiu 2 8.3 5-1/4
9 10 KYRUS UNICORN Closed strongly B A Badel · D J Hall 4 6.4 6
10 12 TURTLE AGAIN B/TT B Thompson · T P Yung 5 23.0 6-1/4
11 11 AROMATICA TT K De Melo · W Y So 8 62.0 6-3/4
12 3 PEGASUS GENERAL V E C W Wong · K H Ting 10 10.0 6-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ESCAPE ROUTE2. FOREVER GLORIOUS+0.1L3. STORM WINNER+1.75L4. MR ALADDIN+1.75L5. FLYING SILVER+2.75L6. CHATER GOLD+4L7. SERANGOON+4.25L8. PRECISE EXPRESS+5.25L9. KYRUS UNICORN+6L10. TURTLE AGAIN+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick MR ALADDIN (17.3%) finished 4th — the winner ESCAPE ROUTE was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 MR ALADDIN 17.3% 5.79 4
2 7 FOREVER GLORIOUS 16.9% 5.93 2
3 2 SERANGOON 14.5% 6.90 7
4 10 KYRUS UNICORN 11.1% 9.04 9
5 6 FLYING SILVER 8.9% 11.24 5
6 3 PEGASUS GENERAL 8.7% 11.51 12
7 4 PRECISE EXPRESS 7.5% 13.30 8
8 1 ESCAPE ROUTE 6.2% 16.01 1
9 12 TURTLE AGAIN 3.1% 31.80 10
10 9 CHATER GOLD 2.8% 36.18 6
11 11 AROMATICA 2.3% 44.42 11
12 5 STORM WINNER 0.8% 124.41 3
MR ALADDINFOREVER GLORIOUSSERANGOONKYRUS UNICORNFLYING SILVERPEGASUS GENERALPRECISE EXPRESSESCAPE ROUTE — wonTURTLE AGAINCHATER GOLDAROMATICASTORM WINNER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 104

PLACE

1 32.5

5 94.5

7 17.5

QUINELLA

1,7 328

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 455.5

1,7 112.5

5,7 279.5

FORECAST

1,7 907

TIERCE

1,7,5 17,572

TRIO

1,5,7 3,810

FIRST 4

1,5,7,8 3,972

QUARTET

1,7,5,8 130,506

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

1/1 480.5

1/7 46