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Sha Tin · 2024-06-08 · 08:04

Race 1

Class 5 GOOD 1400m Course C 13 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-06-08 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. NOBLE WIN, ridden by A Hamelin and trained by J Size, won by N, with MY INTELLIGENT second and HEARTY WISH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.4 favourite MY INTELLIGENT finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.22.16
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 NOBLE WIN Closed strongly E/XB/TT 1.22.16 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Hamelin · J Size 4 5.3 N
2 1 MY INTELLIGENT Closed strongly V/TT Z Purton · W Y So 11 4.4 N
3 4 HEARTY WISH Closed strongly B-/CP1 H Bowman · D J Whyte 10 31.0 1-3/4
4 5 JAZZ CLUB Closed strongly B Avdulla · K L Man 8 8.3 2
5 10 RIGHT HONOURABLE Closed strongly B/XB B Thompson · M Newnham 2 15.0 2-1/4
6 3 DRAGON DELIGHT B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 9 9.9 2-1/2
7 7 SUPER JOY Closed strongly B/XB/TT K C Leung · W K Mo 12 30.0 4
8 9 GENERAL ACE Closed strongly CP C Y Ho · K W Lui 3 31.0 4-1/4
9 12 TSUEN WAN GLORY H-/TT M Chadwick · K L Man 1 16.0 4-3/4
10 8 BEAT HOLLOW Led early A Badel · Y S Tsui 14 16.0 5
11 2 THE CONCENTRATION PC L Ferraris · P F Yiu 5 7.4 6-1/2
12 14 REGENCY HAPPY STAR CP-/H-/B1/TT- L Hewitson · C W Chang 6 8.0 6-1/2
13 13 YEABOI V1/TT A Atzeni · C H Yip 13 27.0 10-3/4
11 MORE RICE K Teetan · T P Yung

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. NOBLE WIN2. MY INTELLIGENT+0.05L3. HEARTY WISH+1.75L4. JAZZ CLUB+2L5. RIGHT HONOURABLE+2.25L6. DRAGON DELIGHT+2.5L7. SUPER JOY+4L8. GENERAL ACE+4.25L9. TSUEN WAN GLORY+4.75L10. BEAT HOLLOW+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick NOBLE WIN (14.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 NOBLE WIN 14.2% 7.05 1
2 1 MY INTELLIGENT 11.3% 8.88 2
3 12 TSUEN WAN GLORY 10.9% 9.18 9
4 5 JAZZ CLUB 10.0% 9.99 4
5 8 BEAT HOLLOW 9.5% 10.54 10
6 4 HEARTY WISH 7.9% 12.72 3
7 3 DRAGON DELIGHT 7.7% 12.92 6
8 7 SUPER JOY 6.1% 16.51 7
9 2 THE CONCENTRATION 5.7% 17.52 11
10 14 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 5.7% 17.66 12
11 13 YEABOI 4.7% 21.40 13
12 9 GENERAL ACE 3.8% 26.23 8
13 10 RIGHT HONOURABLE 2.6% 37.83 5
NOBLE WIN — wonMY INTELLIGENTTSUEN WAN GLORYJAZZ CLUBBEAT HOLLOWHEARTY WISHDRAGON DELIGHTSUPER JOYTHE CONCENTRATIONREGENCY HAPPY STARYEABOIGENERAL ACERIGHT HONOURABLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 53.5

PLACE

1 19.5

4 99

6 20.5

QUINELLA

1,6 139.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 218

1,6 57.5

4,6 325.5

FORECAST

6,1 344

TIERCE

6,1,4 6,419

TRIO

1,4,6 1,465

FIRST 4

1,4,5,6 2,732

QUARTET

6,1,4,5 62,043