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Sha Tin · 2024-06-08 · 12:53

Race 10

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course C 12 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-06-08 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. BEAUTY GLORY, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with LESLIE second and CHIU CHOW SPIRIT third. The winner led throughout. The 2.7 favourite THE HEIR finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.21.53
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 BEAUTY GLORY Wire to wire CP/TT 1.21.53 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · A S Cruz 3 13.0 N
2 12 LESLIE Closed strongly B- K Teetan · C W Chang 12 21.0 N
3 1 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · K L Man 9 9.2 3/4
4 3 BEAUTY CRESCENT TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 7 8.2 1
5 7 THE HEIR Closed strongly H Bowman · C Fownes 1 2.7 2-1/2
6 8 ACROSS DA UNIVERSE Closed strongly XB1/TT1 M F Poon · P C Ng 5 43.0 3-3/4
7 9 SUPER GOLDI TT1 K C Leung · F C Lor 4 6.0 4-3/4
8 4 GOLDEN ARTIE Closed strongly XB B Thompson · P F Yiu 11 16.0 6-1/2
9 5 MOJAVE DESERT L Hewitson · D A Hayes 2 27.0 7-1/4
10 6 SILVER SONIC B1 L Ferraris · K W Lui 10 18.0 9-3/4
11 2 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS B/TT E C W Wong · T P Yung 6 6.8 15-1/2
12 11 BEAUTY THUNDER TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 8 124.0 17-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. BEAUTY GLORY2. LESLIE+0.05L3. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT+0.75L4. BEAUTY CRESCENT+1L5. THE HEIR+2.5L6. ACROSS DA UNIVERSE+3.75L7. SUPER GOLDI+4.75L8. GOLDEN ARTIE+6.5L9. MOJAVE DESERT+7.25L10. SILVER SONIC+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick THE HEIR (30.4%) finished 5th — the winner BEAUTY GLORY was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 THE HEIR 30.4% 3.28 5
2 2 EIGHTY LIGHT YEARS 19.6% 5.10 11
3 9 SUPER GOLDI 11.8% 8.51 7
4 3 BEAUTY CRESCENT 7.7% 13.03 4
5 1 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 7.1% 14.00 3
6 10 BEAUTY GLORY 5.5% 18.34 1
7 12 LESLIE 4.4% 22.82 2
8 6 SILVER SONIC 4.1% 24.52 10
9 8 ACROSS DA UNIVERSE 3.6% 27.88 6
10 4 GOLDEN ARTIE 2.9% 34.62 8
11 5 MOJAVE DESERT 2.5% 39.65 9
12 11 BEAUTY THUNDER 0.5% 206.02 12
THE HEIREIGHTY LIGHT YEARSSUPER GOLDIBEAUTY CRESCENTCHIU CHOW SPIRITBEAUTY GLORY — wonLESLIESILVER SONICACROSS DA UNIVERSEGOLDEN ARTIEMOJAVE DESERTBEAUTY THUNDER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 133

PLACE

1 27.5

10 40.5

12 53.5

QUINELLA

10,12 1,390.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 201.5

1,12 228.5

10,12 382

FORECAST

10,12 2,476

TIERCE

10,12,1 22,917

TRIO

1,10,12 3,288

FIRST 4

1,3,10,12 4,307

QUARTET

10,12,1,3 125,838

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

1/3/10 5,206

1/3/12 904

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,8,14/1,10,12 184,030

9TH DOUBLE

3/10 1,376

3/12 235.5

SIX UP

7/2/7/1/3/10 141,478

7,10/2,11/3,7/1,6/3,8/10,12 9,229

1 [Z Purton]

4 [J Size]