Sha Tin · 2024-06-08 · 09:32
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-06-08 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. THE WINNABE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with VANTASTIC CHOICE second and SCOTCH TYCOON third. Victory came as the 1.2 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | THE WINNABE 1.08.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · J Size | H Bowman | J Size | 2 | 1.2 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 8 | VANTASTIC CHOICE M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 12 | 17.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 2 | SCOTCH TYCOON B/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham | L Ferraris | M Newnham | 4 | 19.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 4 | 9 | GIANT LEAP B A Hamelin · P F Yiu | A Hamelin | P F Yiu | 11 | 31.0 | 5 |
| 5 | 7 | MR ENERGIA H Bentley · D J Hall | H Bentley | D J Hall | 3 | 52.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 11 | CERVIN TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 10 | 118.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | SUPER HIGHWAY V/TT C Y Ho · F C Lor | C Y Ho | F C Lor | 5 | 10.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 5 | WOOD ON FIRE V/TT K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 8 | 30.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | WINNING HEART V/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 7 | 22.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 10 | 3 | FORTUNE RACER H1/TT1 L Hewitson · W K Mo | L Hewitson | W K Mo | 6 | 63.0 | 9-1/2 |
| 11 | 6 | JOYFUL SUPREME E C W Wong · K L Man | E C W Wong | K L Man | 1 | 94.0 | 11-1/4 |
| 12 | 12 | MANYTHANKS FOREVER B/TT B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 9 | 84.0 | 11-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | THE WINNABE | 40.9% | 2.44 | 1 |
| 2 | 4 | SUPER HIGHWAY | 20.7% | 4.83 | 7 |
| 3 | 2 | SCOTCH TYCOON | 9.3% | 10.71 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | WINNING HEART | 8.3% | 12.09 | 9 |
| 5 | 5 | WOOD ON FIRE | 5.5% | 18.10 | 8 |
| 6 | 8 | VANTASTIC CHOICE | 4.2% | 23.88 | 2 |
| 7 | 9 | GIANT LEAP | 3.9% | 25.63 | 4 |
| 8 | 3 | FORTUNE RACER | 3.9% | 25.65 | 10 |
| 9 | 6 | JOYFUL SUPREME | 1.1% | 87.97 | 11 |
| 10 | 12 | MANYTHANKS FOREVER | 0.9% | 114.05 | 12 |
| 11 | 7 | MR ENERGIA | 0.8% | 131.03 | 5 |
| 12 | 11 | CERVIN | 0.5% | 212.99 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 12
PLACE
1 11.5
2 28
8 21
QUINELLA
1,8 73
QUINELLA PLACE
1,2 32.5
1,8 33
2,8 164.5
FORECAST
1,8 83
TIERCE
1,8,2 477
TRIO
1,2,8 210
FIRST 4
1,2,8,9 373
QUARTET
1,8,2,9 2,910
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,7/1,2,8 1,686
3RD DOUBLE
7/1 28.5
7/8 102