Happy Valley · 2024-06-12 · 10:41
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-06-12 was Class 5 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. CHARMING STEED, ridden by E C W Wong and trained by C Fownes, won by 2-1/2, with NINJA DERBY second and HANG'S CHOICE third. The winner led throughout. The 3.0 favourite SPEEDSTAR finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | CHARMING STEED Wire to wire TT 1.40.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 8 | 10.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | NINJA DERBY H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 6 | 9.7 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 12 | HANG'S CHOICE Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · W Y So | K Teetan | W Y So | 2 | 20.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | SPEEDSTAR Closed strongly B Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 3 | 3.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 10 | VIVA A LA B/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 1 | 5.9 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 2 | MASTER OF LUCK Closed strongly TT H Bowman · M Newnham | H Bowman | M Newnham | 10 | 10.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 7 | FORTUNE PRESIDENT Closed strongly C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 4 | 11.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | DOUBLE SHOW B/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte | K De Melo | D J Whyte | 5 | 19.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 3 | KEEN UNITY V/TT H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 7 | 7.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 9 | SUPERB MOVE Closed strongly B/TT A Atzeni · C H Yip | A Atzeni | C H Yip | 12 | 23.0 | 11 |
| 11 | 1 | DRAGON PRIDE Closed strongly A Badel · T P Yung | A Badel | T P Yung | 9 | 29.0 | 13 |
| 12 | 5 | SMART FOLKS B/SR B Thompson · C W Chang | B Thompson | C W Chang | 11 | 48.0 | 16 |
| — | 0 | HAPPIHOOD M L Yeung · W K Mo | M L Yeung | W K Mo | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | SPEEDSTAR | 22.8% | 4.39 | 4 |
| 2 | 4 | CHARMING STEED | 17.3% | 5.78 | 1 |
| 3 | 10 | VIVA A LA | 14.4% | 6.96 | 5 |
| 4 | 11 | NINJA DERBY | 7.6% | 13.20 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | DOUBLE SHOW | 7.4% | 13.53 | 8 |
| 6 | 3 | KEEN UNITY | 7.0% | 14.32 | 9 |
| 7 | 2 | MASTER OF LUCK | 6.2% | 16.10 | 6 |
| 8 | 9 | SUPERB MOVE | 5.6% | 17.78 | 10 |
| 9 | 12 | HANG'S CHOICE | 4.1% | 24.65 | 3 |
| 10 | 7 | FORTUNE PRESIDENT | 3.2% | 31.51 | 7 |
| 11 | 5 | SMART FOLKS | 2.4% | 42.53 | 12 |
| 12 | 1 | DRAGON PRIDE | 2.2% | 46.15 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 103
PLACE
4 29
11 31
12 51.5
QUINELLA
4,11 462.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,11 136
4,12 260
11,12 279
FORECAST
4,11 950
TIERCE
4,11,12 13,854
TRIO
4,11,12 2,906
FIRST 4
4,6,11,12 2,136
QUARTET
4,11,12,6 77,437