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Happy Valley · 2024-06-12 · 13:47

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 12 runners

Race 7 at Happy Valley on 2024-06-12 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. LUCKY ARCHANGEL, ridden by M F Poon and trained by F C Lor, won by N, with CALIFORNIA DEEPLY second and NORDIC DRAGON third. The 2.7 favourite CALIFORNIA DEEPLY finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.10.29
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 LUCKY ARCHANGEL B/XB 1.10.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · F C Lor 5 44.0 N
2 11 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY CP/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 3 2.7 N
3 1 NORDIC DRAGON TT H Bowman · C S Shum 2 3.8 1-1/2
4 5 ASTROLOGER B K C Leung · K L Man 10 49.0 1-1/2
5 9 SUPER JOY N FUN XB1 C L Chau · T P Yung 12 4.8 1-3/4
6 6 GOLDEN EMPIRE B L Hewitson · K W Lui 9 10.0 4
7 7 AMAZING VICTORY TT K Teetan · W Y So 11 12.0 4-1/4
8 3 RISING FROM ASHES B/TT H T Mo · C W Chang 6 34.0 4-1/2
9 10 YOUNG ARROW XB1 K De Melo · D J Whyte 4 30.0 5
10 2 CELESTIAL COLOURS B/TT E C W Wong · J Richards 7 13.0 9-1/4
11 8 ACE VICTORY B Thompson · Y S Tsui 8 61.0 12
12 4 MANRAY HONOUR TT Y L Chung · W K Mo 1 65.0 12
0 WINNING ICEY L Ferraris · C Fownes

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LUCKY ARCHANGEL2. CALIFORNIA DEEPLY+0.05L3. NORDIC DRAGON+1.5L4. ASTROLOGER+1.5L5. SUPER JOY N FUN+1.75L6. GOLDEN EMPIRE+4L7. AMAZING VICTORY+4.25L8. RISING FROM ASHES+4.5L9. YOUNG ARROW+5L10. CELESTIAL COLOURS+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick CALIFORNIA DEEPLY (27.3%) finished 2nd — the winner LUCKY ARCHANGEL was rated #10. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY 27.3% 3.67 2
2 9 SUPER JOY N FUN 15.6% 6.39 5
3 1 NORDIC DRAGON 13.3% 7.52 3
4 7 AMAZING VICTORY 9.3% 10.78 7
5 6 GOLDEN EMPIRE 6.9% 14.49 6
6 3 RISING FROM ASHES 6.8% 14.69 8
7 2 CELESTIAL COLOURS 5.4% 18.36 10
8 5 ASTROLOGER 5.4% 18.56 4
9 10 YOUNG ARROW 3.9% 25.61 9
10 12 LUCKY ARCHANGEL 3.0% 33.62 1
11 8 ACE VICTORY 2.4% 42.22 11
12 4 MANRAY HONOUR 0.7% 134.98 12
CALIFORNIA DEEPLYSUPER JOY N FUNNORDIC DRAGONAMAZING VICTORYGOLDEN EMPIRERISING FROM ASHESCELESTIAL COLOURSASTROLOGERYOUNG ARROWLUCKY ARCHANGEL — wonACE VICTORYMANRAY HONOUR

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 449

PLACE

1 14.5

11 13

12 89.5

QUINELLA

11,12 490.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,11 24.5

1,12 211

11,12 156

FORECAST

12,11 1,830

TIERCE

12,11,1 5,990

TRIO

1,11,12 422

FIRST 4

1,5,11,12 4,141

QUARTET

12,11,1,5 189,404

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

1,3,7/1,11,12 18,617

6TH DOUBLE

3/11 35

3/12 2,990.5

TRIPLE TRIO

3,8,9/1,3,7/1,11,12 197,356

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,8,9/1,3,7/Any Combination 428