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Happy Valley · 2024-06-12 · 13:11

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-06-12 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. RED ELEGANCE, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2-1/4, with MA COMET second and SIGHT HAPPY third. The 2.8 favourite SIGHT HAPPY finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.57.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 RED ELEGANCE B 0.57.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · D J Whyte 5 5.3 2-1/4
2 1 MA COMET P/TT B Avdulla · J Richards 6 10.0 2-1/4
3 7 SIGHT HAPPY K Teetan · D A Hayes 1 2.8 3-1/2
4 12 FANCY STAR PC/TT B Thompson · C Fownes 4 35.0 3-1/2
5 5 SERGEANT PEPPER E C W Wong · Y S Tsui 2 8.3 4-1/4
6 10 PARENTS' LOVE H/TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 11 19.0 4-1/4
7 4 HAPPY SOUL CP/TT C L Chau · C S Shum 7 30.0 4-3/4
8 2 FORTUNE WARRIOR Z Purton · P C Ng 9 5.2 5-1/4
9 11 ROMANTIC NOVELIST XB/TT L Ferraris · M Newnham 10 77.0 5-3/4
10 9 OVERSUBSCRIBED XB A Badel · D J Hall 3 10.0 8
11 6 SUPER COMMANDER V/TT K H Chan · C H Yip 8 35.0 10-3/4
12 8 SPEED SWORD TT L Hewitson · F C Lor 12 70.0 14-1/4
0 HAPPY HORSE H Bentley · K L Man

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED ELEGANCE2. MA COMET+2.25L3. SIGHT HAPPY+3.5L4. FANCY STAR+3.5L5. SERGEANT PEPPER+4.25L6. PARENTS' LOVE+4.25L7. HAPPY SOUL+4.75L8. FORTUNE WARRIOR+5.25L9. ROMANTIC NOVELIST+5.75L10. OVERSUBSCRIBED+8L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick SERGEANT PEPPER (19.3%) finished 5th — the winner RED ELEGANCE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 SERGEANT PEPPER 19.3% 5.17 5
2 7 SIGHT HAPPY 14.7% 6.78 3
3 2 FORTUNE WARRIOR 13.8% 7.25 8
4 3 RED ELEGANCE 11.9% 8.39 1
5 9 OVERSUBSCRIBED 11.8% 8.45 10
6 1 MA COMET 7.8% 12.80 2
7 4 HAPPY SOUL 7.6% 13.11 7
8 10 PARENTS' LOVE 5.5% 18.33 6
9 6 SUPER COMMANDER 4.4% 22.81 11
10 12 FANCY STAR 1.3% 77.27 4
11 8 SPEED SWORD 1.0% 103.46 12
12 11 ROMANTIC NOVELIST 0.8% 122.76 9
SERGEANT PEPPERSIGHT HAPPYFORTUNE WARRIORRED ELEGANCE — wonOVERSUBSCRIBEDMA COMETHAPPY SOULPARENTS' LOVESUPER COMMANDERFANCY STARSPEED SWORDROMANTIC NOVELIST

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 53

PLACE

1 27

3 19.5

7 16

QUINELLA

1,3 255.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,3 86

1,7 63

3,7 42

FORECAST

3,1 480

TIERCE

3,1,7 1,706

TRIO

1,3,7 312

FIRST 4

1,3,7,12 2,047

QUARTET

3,1,7,12 51,576

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

8/1 32.5

8/3 270.5