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Happy Valley · 2024-06-12 · 22:53

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course B 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.47
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 RED HARE KING Closed strongly TT 1.40.47 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · A S Cruz 3 3.5 N
2 9 AESTHETICISM Closed strongly B L Hewitson · P C Ng 12 33.0 N
3 6 STAR CONTACT Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 4 8.4 1/2
4 11 JUMBO LEGEND Closed strongly H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 1 4.4 3/4
5 8 SATIRICAL FAN Led early CP/TT Y L Chung · C S Shum 9 16.0 1-3/4
6 2 IVY LEAGUE Closed strongly SR/XB/TT K De Melo · D J Whyte 8 19.0 2-1/4
7 4 ROMANTIC LAOS TT K C Leung · W K Mo 6 14.0 2-3/4
8 3 NEVER TOO SOON Closed strongly B Avdulla · D J Hall 5 17.0 2-3/4
9 10 WINNING DATA B A Atzeni · P F Yiu 11 22.0 3
10 12 SWEET BRIAR V/TT H Bentley · K W Lui 2 7.5 3
11 7 GLORIOUS JOURNEY TT M Chadwick · F C Lor 7 27.0 4-1/4
12 5 BEAUTY INFINITY P- Z Purton · J Size 10 10.0 5-1/4
— 0 BIG RED M L Yeung · C W Chang — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2024-06-12 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RED HARE KING, ridden by H Bowman and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with AESTHETICISM second and STAR CONTACT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.5 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RED HARE KING—2. AESTHETICISM+0.05L3. STAR CONTACT+0.5L4. JUMBO LEGEND+0.75L5. SATIRICAL FAN+1.75L6. IVY LEAGUE+2.25L7. ROMANTIC LAOS+2.75L8. NEVER TOO SOON+2.75L9. WINNING DATA+3L10. SWEET BRIAR+3L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick RED HARE KING (21.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 RED HARE KING 21.8% 4.58 1
2 12 SWEET BRIAR 14.9% 6.69 10
3 5 BEAUTY INFINITY 10.7% 9.38 12
4 11 JUMBO LEGEND 9.9% 10.09 4
5 6 STAR CONTACT 9.7% 10.29 3
6 4 ROMANTIC LAOS 6.1% 16.41 7
7 2 IVY LEAGUE 5.9% 16.90 6
8 10 WINNING DATA 4.4% 22.54 9
9 3 NEVER TOO SOON 4.4% 22.85 8
10 9 AESTHETICISM 4.3% 23.04 2
11 7 GLORIOUS JOURNEY 4.0% 25.27 11
12 8 SATIRICAL FAN 3.8% 26.11 5
RED HARE KING — wonSWEET BRIARBEAUTY INFINITYJUMBO LEGENDSTAR CONTACTROMANTIC LAOSIVY LEAGUEWINNING DATANEVER TOO SOONAESTHETICISMGLORIOUS JOURNEYSATIRICAL FAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 35

PLACE

1 15

6 22

9 79.5

QUINELLA

1,9 655

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 58.5

1,9 218

6,9 384

FORECAST

1,9 897

TIERCE

1,9,6 10,585

TRIO

1,6,9 1,425

FIRST 4

1,6,9,11 1,390

QUARTET

1,9,6,11 38,269

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

12/9/1 5,723

12/9/9 11,558

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

7,8,9/1,6,9 348,870

8TH DOUBLE

9/1 99

9/9 177

SIX UP

5/8/3/12/9/1 2,304,677

5,12/8,9/1,3/11,12/8,9/1,9 6,309

6 [M Chadwick] —

2 [A S Cruz] —