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Happy Valley · 2024-06-12 · 11:42

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1800m Course B 12 runners

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2024-06-12 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. JUBILATION, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by W Y So, won by HD, with WINNING STEPS second and PRECISE EXPRESS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite SATIRICAL GLORY finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.50.17
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 11 JUBILATION Closed strongly V 1.50.17 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · W Y So 9 15.0 HD
2 4 WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC A Hamelin · P C Ng 5 22.0 HD
3 7 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly H A Atzeni · P F Yiu 1 8.2 1/2
4 2 SATIRICAL GLORY Z Purton · D A Hayes 11 3.8 1-3/4
5 3 FOREVER GLORIOUS V/TT K Teetan · K W Lui 2 5.8 2-1/4
6 8 GOLD TACK Closed strongly B K De Melo · D J Hall 10 6.6 3-1/4
7 9 ME TIME Closed strongly SR/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte 6 8.9 3-3/4
8 1 CORDYCEPS ONE Led early E C W Wong · C H Yip 8 26.0 4-1/4
9 5 HOLY POWER B/TT A Badel · J Richards 7 14.0 7
10 6 PEGASUS GENERAL V Y L Chung · K H Ting 3 9.3 7-1/2
11 12 NICE BIRDIE TT M F Poon · C S Shum 4 20.0 7-1/2
12 10 AMAZING BOY TT M Chadwick · C W Chang 12 54.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. JUBILATION2. WINNING STEPS+0.2L3. PRECISE EXPRESS+0.5L4. SATIRICAL GLORY+1.75L5. FOREVER GLORIOUS+2.25L6. GOLD TACK+3.25L7. ME TIME+3.75L8. CORDYCEPS ONE+4.25L9. HOLY POWER+7L10. PEGASUS GENERAL+7.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2023-24
The model's top pick FOREVER GLORIOUS (17.6%) finished 5th — the winner JUBILATION was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 FOREVER GLORIOUS 17.6% 5.68 5
2 2 SATIRICAL GLORY 15.1% 6.62 4
3 12 NICE BIRDIE 9.7% 10.26 11
4 6 PEGASUS GENERAL 9.3% 10.71 10
5 8 GOLD TACK 9.3% 10.72 6
6 7 PRECISE EXPRESS 8.7% 11.54 3
7 5 HOLY POWER 8.6% 11.62 9
8 1 CORDYCEPS ONE 4.5% 22.36 8
9 11 JUBILATION 4.4% 22.78 1
10 10 AMAZING BOY 4.4% 22.98 12
11 9 ME TIME 4.2% 23.63 7
12 4 WINNING STEPS 4.2% 24.08 2
FOREVER GLORIOUSSATIRICAL GLORYNICE BIRDIEPEGASUS GENERALGOLD TACKPRECISE EXPRESSHOLY POWERCORDYCEPS ONEJUBILATION — wonAMAZING BOYME TIMEWINNING STEPS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 153.5

PLACE

4 65.5

7 24

11 44

QUINELLA

4,11 1,333

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 264.5

4,11 241.5

7,11 181

FORECAST

11,4 3,171

TIERCE

11,4,7 19,552

TRIO

4,7,11 3,531

FIRST 4

2,4,7,11 4,312

QUARTET

11,4,7,2 183,279

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,11/4,7,11 472,423

2ND DOUBLE

2/4 204

2/11 681