Sha Tin · 2024-09-08

Race 7

Class 2 1400m Course A 8 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-08 was Class 2 over 1400m. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT, ridden by A Badel and trained by K L Man, won by 1-3/4, with SUPERB BOY second and KARMA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite SUPREME LUCKY finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.21.91

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	CHIU CHOW SPIRIT Closed strongly B/TT 1.21.91 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · K L Man	A Badel	K L Man	3	131 lb	5.8	1-3/4
2	4	SUPERB BOY TT Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	7	129 lb	8.4	1-3/4
3	5	KARMA Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	5	127 lb	4.8	3
4	3	KEEFY K Teetan · F C Lor	K Teetan	F C Lor	2	130 lb	42.0	3-1/4
5	6	CHING Closed strongly L Hewitson · C W Chang	L Hewitson	C W Chang	6	123 lb	13.0	4-1/4
6	1	SUPREME LUCKY TT H Bowman · C S Shum	H Bowman	C S Shum	1	132 lb	3.6	4-1/2
7	8	BEAUTY CRESCENT TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz	M Chadwick	A S Cruz	4	120 lb	5.7	5-1/4
8	7	FRANTANCK Led early TT1 Y L Chung · P C Ng	Y L Chung	P C Ng	8	119 lb	6.0	8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick KARMA (22.7%) finished 3rd — the winner CHIU CHOW SPIRIT was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	KARMA	22.7%	4.41	3	4.8
2	8	BEAUTY CRESCENT	18.6%	5.37	7	5.7
3	4	SUPERB BOY	14.3%	7.00	2	8.4
4	1	SUPREME LUCKY	12.6%	7.92	6	3.6
5	6	CHING	10.8%	9.23	5	13.0
6	2	CHIU CHOW SPIRIT	10.5%	9.56	1	5.8
7	7	FRANTANCK	6.7%	14.82	8	6.0
8	3	KEEFY	3.8%	26.55	4	42.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 58.5

PLACE

2 17.5

4 24

5 19

QUINELLA

2,4 181

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 60.5

2,5 51.5

4,5 68

FORECAST

2,4 317

TIERCE

2,4,5 1,336

TRIO

2,4,5 182

FIRST 4

2,3,4,5 804

QUARTET

2,4,5,3 15,730

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

12/2 1,139

12/4 318.5

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