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Sha Tin · 2024-09-08

Race 2

Class 5 1200m Course A 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-08 was Class 5 over 1200m. SAME TO YOU, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by M Newnham, won by 1/2, with HO HO STAR second and SUPER ELITE third. The 3.1 favourite SUPER ELITE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.09.98
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 SAME TO YOU H/P/TT 1.09.98 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · M Newnham 9 15.0 1/2
2 12 HO HO STAR H K C Leung · C H Yip 12 7.8 1/2
3 3 SUPER ELITE B/H/XB H Bowman · D J Hall 4 3.1 1-1/2
4 10 THE GOOD DEAL CP-/B2/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 7 10.0 1-1/2
5 5 SMART LEADER PC/XB/TT Z Purton · W Y So 5 4.5 2-1/4
6 13 REGENCY HAPPY STAR B H T Mo · C W Chang 10 48.0 2-1/2
7 7 YOUTH POWER B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 8 27.0 2-1/2
8 8 ALLOY KING V H Bentley · K H Ting 1 26.0 3-1/4
9 11 RED MAVERICK M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 11 56.0 4
10 4 MOLLY'S WITNESS B/SR1/TT B Thompson · J Richards 6 107.0 4-3/4
11 6 LUCKY QUALITY V/TT K H Chan · C Fownes 3 9.9 4-3/4
12 1 TATTENHAM H A Badel · P C Ng 2 7.5 4-3/4
13 2 EXCELLENT DADDY TT L Ferraris · T P Yung 13 36.0 6-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SAME TO YOU2. HO HO STAR+0.5L3. SUPER ELITE+1.5L4. THE GOOD DEAL+1.5L5. SMART LEADER+2.25L6. REGENCY HAPPY STAR+2.5L7. YOUTH POWER+2.5L8. ALLOY KING+3.25L9. RED MAVERICK+4L10. MOLLY'S WITNESS+4.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SUPER ELITE (16.6%) finished 3rd — the winner SAME TO YOU was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SUPER ELITE 16.6% 6.02 3
2 5 SMART LEADER 14.5% 6.88 5
3 1 TATTENHAM 13.8% 7.26 12
4 12 HO HO STAR 9.3% 10.73 2
5 10 THE GOOD DEAL 8.9% 11.19 4
6 6 LUCKY QUALITY 8.2% 12.22 11
7 9 SAME TO YOU 5.6% 17.92 1
8 8 ALLOY KING 5.1% 19.74 8
9 2 EXCELLENT DADDY 4.8% 20.96 13
10 11 RED MAVERICK 4.3% 23.17 9
11 7 YOUTH POWER 4.0% 24.84 7
12 13 REGENCY HAPPY STAR 4.0% 25.11 6
13 4 MOLLY'S WITNESS 0.9% 112.62 10
SUPER ELITESMART LEADERTATTENHAMHO HO STARTHE GOOD DEALLUCKY QUALITYSAME TO YOU — wonALLOY KINGEXCELLENT DADDYRED MAVERICKYOUTH POWERREGENCY HAPPY STARMOLLY'S WITNESS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 153.5

PLACE

3 15

9 38

12 28

QUINELLA

9,12 566.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,9 95

3,12 81

9,12 180.5

FORECAST

9,12 1,277

TIERCE

9,12,3 5,760

TRIO

3,9,12 729

FIRST 4

3,9,10,12 1,060

QUARTET

9,12,3,10 34,574

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

8/9 584.5

8/12 58.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

2,8,11/3,9,12 20,316