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Sha Tin · 2024-09-08

Race 5

Class 4 1200m Course A 11 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-08 was Class 4 over 1200m. MY WISH, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by M Newnham, won by 2-1/4, with SUPER LEGENDS second and STERLING WONGCHOY third. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.77
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 MY WISH 1.09.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · M Newnham 6 2.2 2-1/4
2 10 SUPER LEGENDS TT K H Chan · C S Shum 3 6.2 2-1/4
3 11 STERLING WONGCHOY XB/SR1 H Bentley · D J Whyte 11 100.0 4-1/2
4 7 POCHETTINO H1/TT1 A Badel · J Size 10 110.0 5
5 1 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY CP/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 9 5.9 5-1/4
6 2 YEAH BUDDY B/TT M L Yeung · W K Mo 8 15.0 5-1/4
7 6 PEARL OF PANG'S M Chadwick · K L Man 1 9.6 5-1/2
8 3 SNOWALOT B B Thompson · D A Hayes 5 37.0 5-3/4
9 8 LIFE OF STONE C L Chau · T P Yung 7 49.0 6-3/4
10 9 SUNDAY'S SERENADE B/TT K Teetan · J Richards 2 22.0 7
11 5 SUPER BONUS B/TT A Atzeni · P C Ng 4 6.3 8-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MY WISH2. SUPER LEGENDS+2.25L3. STERLING WONGCHOY+4.5L4. POCHETTINO+5L5. CALIFORNIA DEEPLY+5.25L6. YEAH BUDDY+5.25L7. PEARL OF PANG'S+5.5L8. SNOWALOT+5.75L9. LIFE OF STONE+6.75L10. SUNDAY'S SERENADE+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick MY WISH (19.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 MY WISH 19.1% 5.23 1
2 5 SUPER BONUS 18.7% 5.36 11
3 1 CALIFORNIA DEEPLY 15.3% 6.55 5
4 10 SUPER LEGENDS 14.4% 6.97 2
5 6 PEARL OF PANG'S 10.0% 10.03 7
6 9 SUNDAY'S SERENADE 7.2% 13.88 10
7 7 POCHETTINO 6.6% 15.13 4
8 3 SNOWALOT 4.1% 24.24 8
9 11 STERLING WONGCHOY 2.2% 45.49 3
10 2 YEAH BUDDY 1.7% 58.30 6
11 8 LIFE OF STONE 0.8% 130.87 9
MY WISH — wonSUPER BONUSCALIFORNIA DEEPLYSUPER LEGENDSPEARL OF PANG'SSUNDAY'S SERENADEPOCHETTINOSNOWALOTSTERLING WONGCHOYYEAH BUDDYLIFE OF STONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 22.5

PLACE

4 12.5

10 17.5

11 184.5

QUINELLA

4,10 70

QUINELLA PLACE

4,10 30.5

4,11 417

10,11 770

FORECAST

4,10 106

TIERCE

4,10,11 7,451

TRIO

4,10,11 2,021

FIRST 4

4,7,10,11 16,265

QUARTET

4,10,11,7 116,279

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

1/1/4 103

1/1/10 45

4TH DOUBLE

1/4 46

1/10 28.5