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Sha Tin · 2024-09-08

Race 8

Class 4 1400m Course A 13 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-08 was Class 4 over 1400m. HARMONY N HOME, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with SOLID WIN second and BALLISTIC WIN third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite BALLISTIC WIN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.22.71
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 HARMONY N HOME Closed strongly 1.22.71 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C S Shum 11 57.0 1/2
2 8 SOLID WIN Closed strongly TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu 9 7.1 1/2
3 1 BALLISTIC WIN Closed strongly B Thompson · T P Yung 2 3.1 1
4 11 GALLANT CROWN B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 10 15.0 1-1/4
5 9 CIRCUIT MIGHTY Led early TT K C Leung · K L Man 1 9.9 1-1/2
6 3 OWNERS' PRAISE Closed strongly TT L Hewitson · W Y So 12 10.0 1-1/2
7 12 GANGNAM STAR Closed strongly XB A Badel · P C Ng 13 10.0 1-1/2
8 7 FAMILY JEWEL TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 4 4.8 2-1/4
9 2 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 7 39.0 2-3/4
10 4 U S S CONSTITUTION B/TT A Hamelin · J Size 3 90.0 3-1/4
11 10 PRINCE ALEX CP/XB/TT M Chadwick · D J Whyte 6 39.0 3-1/4
12 5 LUCKY GOLD B C L Chau · K W Lui 8 54.0 4-1/2
13 6 BLAZING WIND TT H Bowman · C S Shum 5 10.0 5

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HARMONY N HOME2. SOLID WIN+0.5L3. BALLISTIC WIN+1L4. GALLANT CROWN+1.25L5. CIRCUIT MIGHTY+1.5L6. OWNERS' PRAISE+1.5L7. GANGNAM STAR+1.5L8. FAMILY JEWEL+2.25L9. VIVA GRACIOUSNESS+2.75L10. U S S CONSTITUTION+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick BALLISTIC WIN (17.5%) finished 3rd — the winner HARMONY N HOME was rated #12. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BALLISTIC WIN 17.5% 5.71 3
2 12 GANGNAM STAR 13.4% 7.48 7
3 6 BLAZING WIND 10.7% 9.30 13
4 3 OWNERS' PRAISE 10.4% 9.66 6
5 9 CIRCUIT MIGHTY 7.8% 12.79 5
6 7 FAMILY JEWEL 7.5% 13.39 8
7 8 SOLID WIN 7.0% 14.37 2
8 11 GALLANT CROWN 5.0% 20.12 4
9 5 LUCKY GOLD 5.0% 20.15 12
10 2 VIVA GRACIOUSNESS 4.9% 20.38 9
11 10 PRINCE ALEX 4.9% 20.50 11
12 13 HARMONY N HOME 4.4% 22.82 1
13 4 U S S CONSTITUTION 1.7% 60.16 10
BALLISTIC WINGANGNAM STARBLAZING WINDOWNERS' PRAISECIRCUIT MIGHTYFAMILY JEWELSOLID WINGALLANT CROWNLUCKY GOLDVIVA GRACIOUSNESSPRINCE ALEXHARMONY N HOME — wonU S S CONSTITUTION

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 576.5

PLACE

1 15.5

8 21.5

13 128.5

QUINELLA

8,13 1,697

QUINELLA PLACE

1,8 54.5

1,13 307.5

8,13 560

FORECAST

13,8 4,422

TIERCE

13,8,1 28,253

TRIO

1,8,13 1,962

FIRST 4

1,8,11,13 6,446

QUARTET

13,8,1,11 261,471

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,5/1,8,13 34,529

7TH DOUBLE

2/8 44

2/13 2,044.5