Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-09-08

Race 6

Class 4 1400m Course A 13 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-08 was Class 4 over 1400m. AMAZING RUN, ridden by L Hewitson and trained by D A Hayes, won by SH, with FIGHTING MACHINE second and AMAZING DUCK third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.8 favourite FIGHTING MACHINE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.22.05
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 AMAZING RUN Closed strongly 1.22.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Hewitson · D A Hayes 11 18.0 SH
2 3 FIGHTING MACHINE Closed strongly SR Z Purton · P C Ng 10 3.8 SH
3 5 AMAZING DUCK CP M F Poon · K H Ting 8 4.5 2-1/2
4 11 FORERUNNER Closed strongly TT Y L Chung · W K Mo 13 6.8 2-3/4
5 4 HIGHLAND RAHY CP1/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 1 9.7 3-1/4
6 1 JUMBO LEGEND Closed strongly H/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes 2 19.0 3-1/2
7 6 CALIFORNIA MOXIE CP/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 7 37.0 3-3/4
8 2 RED ACLAIM TT A Hamelin · J Size 6 127.0 4-1/4
9 8 BEAUTIFUL WIN Closed strongly TT K De Melo · W Y So 12 77.0 4-1/2
10 10 CIRCUIT FIERY A Badel · T P Yung 3 13.0 5
11 9 CHARITY FOR ALL TT H Bowman · C S Shum 9 18.0 5
12 7 STAR LINE Led early B H Bentley · D J Hall 4 57.0 6-1/2
13 13 CALL ME SUPREME B/XB1/TT- K Teetan · C W Chang 5 5.4 7-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING RUN2. FIGHTING MACHINE+0.1L3. AMAZING DUCK+2.5L4. FORERUNNER+2.75L5. HIGHLAND RAHY+3.25L6. JUMBO LEGEND+3.5L7. CALIFORNIA MOXIE+3.75L8. RED ACLAIM+4.25L9. BEAUTIFUL WIN+4.5L10. CIRCUIT FIERY+5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FIGHTING MACHINE (18.7%) finished 2nd — the winner AMAZING RUN was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 FIGHTING MACHINE 18.7% 5.33 2
2 11 FORERUNNER 15.7% 6.37 4
3 10 CIRCUIT FIERY 10.9% 9.18 10
4 6 CALIFORNIA MOXIE 8.5% 11.73 7
5 13 CALL ME SUPREME 8.3% 12.01 13
6 5 AMAZING DUCK 7.0% 14.38 3
7 1 JUMBO LEGEND 6.9% 14.40 6
8 4 HIGHLAND RAHY 5.5% 18.08 5
9 12 AMAZING RUN 5.4% 18.61 1
10 9 CHARITY FOR ALL 5.0% 19.88 11
11 7 STAR LINE 4.9% 20.50 12
12 2 RED ACLAIM 1.6% 60.71 8
13 8 BEAUTIFUL WIN 1.4% 69.26 9
FIGHTING MACHINEFORERUNNERCIRCUIT FIERYCALIFORNIA MOXIECALL ME SUPREMEAMAZING DUCKJUMBO LEGENDHIGHLAND RAHYAMAZING RUN — wonCHARITY FOR ALLSTAR LINERED ACLAIMBEAUTIFUL WIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 188

PLACE

3 17.5

5 18

12 56.5

QUINELLA

3,12 503

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 43

3,12 156.5

5,12 201.5

FORECAST

12,3 1,174

TIERCE

12,3,5 6,217

TRIO

3,5,12 706

FIRST 4

3,5,11,12 956

QUARTET

12,3,5,11 35,801

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

4,10,11/3,5,12 259,433

5TH DOUBLE

4/3 19.5

4/12 556.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,4,10/4,10,11/3,5,12 18,100,309

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,4,10/4,10,11/Any Combination 10,797