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Sha Tin · 2024-09-08

Race 9

Class 4 1200m Course A 12 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-08 was Class 4 over 1200m. SUPER FORTUNE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with HAROLD WIN second and GENEVA third. The 3.6 favourite GENEVA finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.69
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SUPER FORTUNE TT 1.08.69 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · A S Cruz 7 9.9 N
2 5 HAROLD WIN B/XB A Atzeni · K W Lui 12 10.0 N
3 8 GENEVA H Bowman · D J Hall 5 3.6 1/2
4 6 MASTER MASTERMIND B1/TT Z Purton · D A Hayes 11 4.6 4-1/2
5 3 YUEN LONG ELITE M L Yeung · K L Man 8 6.2 4-3/4
6 11 HAPPY FOR ALL B/TT K C Leung · J Richards 1 8.1 5-1/4
7 10 TAKE ACTION P- K Teetan · J Size 9 55.0 5-1/4
8 9 DAY DAY VICTORY XB C L Chau · T P Yung 3 30.0 5-3/4
9 12 SUPER CHARIZZARD P B Thompson · M Newnham 6 31.0 6-1/4
10 4 CHAMPION METHOD B2/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 4 16.0 6-3/4
11 1 FIRST LOVE L Ferraris · P C Ng 2 12.0 8-1/2
12 7 EN PERFECTO TT1 B Avdulla · C S Shum 10 74.0 10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER FORTUNE2. HAROLD WIN+0.05L3. GENEVA+0.5L4. MASTER MASTERMIND+4.5L5. YUEN LONG ELITE+4.75L6. HAPPY FOR ALL+5.25L7. TAKE ACTION+5.25L8. DAY DAY VICTORY+5.75L9. SUPER CHARIZZARD+6.25L10. CHAMPION METHOD+6.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick FIRST LOVE (23.8%) finished 11th — the winner SUPER FORTUNE was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 FIRST LOVE 23.8% 4.20 11
2 8 GENEVA 19.9% 5.03 3
3 6 MASTER MASTERMIND 11.1% 8.99 4
4 11 HAPPY FOR ALL 10.7% 9.31 6
5 3 YUEN LONG ELITE 7.6% 13.20 5
6 5 HAROLD WIN 7.5% 13.30 2
7 4 CHAMPION METHOD 6.8% 14.69 10
8 7 EN PERFECTO 3.8% 25.99 12
9 2 SUPER FORTUNE 3.5% 28.56 1
10 10 TAKE ACTION 2.3% 43.07 7
11 12 SUPER CHARIZZARD 2.3% 43.58 9
12 9 DAY DAY VICTORY 0.5% 182.05 8
FIRST LOVEGENEVAMASTER MASTERMINDHAPPY FOR ALLYUEN LONG ELITEHAROLD WINCHAMPION METHODEN PERFECTOSUPER FORTUNE — wonTAKE ACTIONSUPER CHARIZZARDDAY DAY VICTORY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 99

PLACE

2 34.5

5 29

8 16.5

QUINELLA

2,5 594

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 193

2,8 77

5,8 79.5

FORECAST

2,5 1,208

TIERCE

2,5,8 5,748

TRIO

2,5,8 775

FIRST 4

2,5,6,8 778

QUARTET

2,5,8,6 24,851

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

13/2 5,279

13/5 1,073.5