Sha Tin · 2024-09-15

Race 1

Class 4 1600m Course A+3 9 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-15 was Class 4 over 1600m. FAMILY JEWEL, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with SPECIAL HEDGE second and SOARING BRONCO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.33.70

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	3	FAMILY JEWEL Closed strongly TT 1.33.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes	H Bowman	C Fownes	4	127 lb	2.0	N
2	9	SPECIAL HEDGE Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung	L Hewitson	T P Yung	5	117 lb	5.8	N
3	8	SOARING BRONCO M F Poon · P C Ng	M F Poon	P C Ng	3	117 lb	9.0	1/2
4	5	MISTER DAPPER B-/XB/CP2 K Teetan · D J Whyte	K Teetan	D J Whyte	2	125 lb	4.8	2-3/4
5	4	MIDORI BURLY CP1/TT A Badel · P F Yiu	A Badel	P F Yiu	1	127 lb	24.0	4
6	6	STAR LINE Led early B P N Wong · D J Hall	P N Wong	D J Hall	6	115 lb	16.0	6
7	7	SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz	B Avdulla	A S Cruz	7	121 lb	10.0	6-1/4
8	1	SMART CITY CP/TT1 K C Leung · P F Yiu	K C Leung	P F Yiu	8	135 lb	32.0	6-3/4
9	2	PERFECT PAIRING B A Atzeni · J Size	A Atzeni	J Size	9	133 lb	60.0	10

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick SMART BEAUTY (28.6%) finished 7th — the winner FAMILY JEWEL was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	7	SMART BEAUTY	28.6%	3.50	7	10.0
2	3	FAMILY JEWEL	19.6%	5.10	1	2.0
3	5	MISTER DAPPER	17.4%	5.73	4	4.8
4	9	SPECIAL HEDGE	10.7%	9.30	2	5.8
5	8	SOARING BRONCO	7.6%	13.15	3	9.0
6	6	STAR LINE	5.3%	18.98	6	16.0
7	1	SMART CITY	4.8%	20.99	8	32.0
8	4	MIDORI BURLY	3.7%	27.09	5	24.0
9	2	PERFECT PAIRING	2.3%	44.00	9	60.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 20.5

PLACE

3 11

8 27

9 16

QUINELLA

3,9 61.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 34.5

3,9 27

8,9 73

FORECAST

3,9 105

TIERCE

3,9,8 587

TRIO

3,8,9 145

FIRST 4

3,5,8,9 93

QUARTET

3,9,8,5 1,895

Race 2 → This meeting Draw bias · Sha Tin 1600m Need this as data? Full results archive from $99