Sha Tin · 2024-09-15
Race 1
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FAMILY JEWEL Closed strongly TT 1.33.70 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 4 | 2.0 | N |
| 2 | 9 | SPECIAL HEDGE Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · T P Yung | L Hewitson | T P Yung | 5 | 5.8 | N |
| 3 | 8 | SOARING BRONCO M F Poon · P C Ng | M F Poon | P C Ng | 3 | 9.0 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | MISTER DAPPER B-/XB/CP2 K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 2 | 4.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 4 | MIDORI BURLY CP1/TT A Badel · P F Yiu | A Badel | P F Yiu | 1 | 24.0 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | STAR LINE Led early B P N Wong · D J Hall | P N Wong | D J Hall | 6 | 16.0 | 6 |
| 7 | 7 | SMART BEAUTY Closed strongly B/H/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 7 | 10.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 1 | SMART CITY CP/TT1 K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 8 | 32.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | PERFECT PAIRING B A Atzeni · J Size | A Atzeni | J Size | 9 | 60.0 | 10 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-15 was Class 4 over 1600m. FAMILY JEWEL, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by N, with SPECIAL HEDGE second and SOARING BRONCO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | SMART BEAUTY | 28.6% | 3.50 | 7 |
| 2 | 3 | FAMILY JEWEL | 19.6% | 5.10 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | MISTER DAPPER | 17.4% | 5.73 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | SPECIAL HEDGE | 10.7% | 9.30 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | SOARING BRONCO | 7.6% | 13.15 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | STAR LINE | 5.3% | 18.98 | 6 |
| 7 | 1 | SMART CITY | 4.8% | 20.99 | 8 |
| 8 | 4 | MIDORI BURLY | 3.7% | 27.09 | 5 |
| 9 | 2 | PERFECT PAIRING | 2.3% | 44.00 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 20.5
PLACE
3 11
8 27
9 16
QUINELLA
3,9 61.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 34.5
3,9 27
8,9 73
FORECAST
3,9 105
TIERCE
3,9,8 587
TRIO
3,8,9 145
FIRST 4
3,5,8,9 93
QUARTET
3,9,8,5 1,895