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Sha Tin · 2024-09-15

Race 7

Class 4 1400m Course A+3 10 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-15 was Class 4 over 1400m. DEVAS TWELVE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by HD, with DRAGON FOUR SEAS second and SATIRICAL GLORY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite LUCKY IMPACT finished 9th.

Result

Official · 1.22.07
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 DEVAS TWELVE Closed strongly TT 1.22.07 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So 4 5.2 HD
2 8 DRAGON FOUR SEAS Closed strongly B K C Leung · K L Man 10 10.0 HD
3 3 SATIRICAL GLORY Closed strongly SR1/XB1 L Hewitson · C W Chang 2 18.0 1/2
4 9 CHATER GOLD Closed strongly CP H Bentley · D A Hayes 1 7.7 1-1/4
5 5 MISSION VOICE B L Ferraris · M Newnham 7 5.7 1-1/2
6 1 HARMONY GALAXY TT P N Wong · C S Shum 3 51.0 4-1/4
7 10 STERLING WONGCHOY Closed strongly SR/XB A Badel · D J Whyte 8 25.0 4-1/4
8 11 MISTER FOX Closed strongly CP1 B Thompson · D J Hall 9 93.0 6
9 6 LUCKY IMPACT K Teetan · F C Lor 6 3.1 9-3/4
10 2 TOP PEAK Led early TT C L Chau · T P Yung 5 5.5 17-1/4
7 MILES AWAY M Chadwick · P C Ng

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. DEVAS TWELVE2. DRAGON FOUR SEAS+0.2L3. SATIRICAL GLORY+0.5L4. CHATER GOLD+1.25L5. MISSION VOICE+1.5L6. HARMONY GALAXY+4.25L7. STERLING WONGCHOY+4.25L8. MISTER FOX+6L9. LUCKY IMPACT+9.75L10. TOP PEAK+17.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick TOP PEAK (22.1%) finished 10th — the winner DEVAS TWELVE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 TOP PEAK 22.1% 4.53 10
2 4 DEVAS TWELVE 19.7% 5.08 1
3 6 LUCKY IMPACT 14.6% 6.85 9
4 5 MISSION VOICE 13.5% 7.41 5
5 3 SATIRICAL GLORY 12.1% 8.28 3
6 9 CHATER GOLD 10.5% 9.48 4
7 8 DRAGON FOUR SEAS 3.3% 29.88 2
8 10 STERLING WONGCHOY 2.0% 49.07 7
9 1 HARMONY GALAXY 1.6% 62.75 6
10 11 MISTER FOX 0.6% 176.67 8
TOP PEAKDEVAS TWELVE — wonLUCKY IMPACTMISSION VOICESATIRICAL GLORYCHATER GOLDDRAGON FOUR SEASSTERLING WONGCHOYHARMONY GALAXYMISTER FOX

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 52.5

PLACE

3 44

4 18.5

8 31.5

QUINELLA

4,8 245.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 132

3,8 238

4,8 82.5

FORECAST

4,8 511

TIERCE

4,8,3 5,638

TRIO

3,4,8 1,460

FIRST 4

3,4,8,9 1,904

QUARTET

4,8,3,9 44,306

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

7/4 1,299.5

7/8 549