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Sha Tin · 2024-09-15

Race 9

Class 3 1000m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-15 was Class 3 over 1000m. MAGIC CONTROL, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W K Mo, won by 1, with STELLAR EXPRESS second and CELESTIAL COLOURS third. The 3.5 favourite STELLAR EXPRESS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 0.55.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 MAGIC CONTROL TT 0.55.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W K Mo 10 5.9 1
2 6 STELLAR EXPRESS B Avdulla · J Size 14 3.5 1
3 5 CELESTIAL COLOURS B-/V2/TT H Bowman · J Richards 3 22.0 1-1/4
4 2 FLYING HIGH TT L Hewitson · W Y So 7 18.0 2
5 3 HASTEN DELIGHT B/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 5 10.0 3-1/4
6 12 MIGHTY COMMANDER H1/TT M L Yeung · C Fownes 2 71.0 3-3/4
7 1 CARROLL STREET SR/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte 11 12.0 4
8 11 SAVVY BRILLIANT Z Purton · F C Lor 12 8.1 4-1/2
9 10 ETERNAL FORTUNE Y L Chung · C S Shum 6 86.0 5
10 14 MULTISUPER B-/TT- P N Wong · P F Yiu 9 4.2 5-1/2
11 9 ORIENTAL SMOKE B B Thompson · D A Hayes 13 32.0 5-3/4
12 7 PHOENIX LIGHT H E C W Wong · C H Yip 8 33.0 5-3/4
13 13 CAPITAL LEGEND TT M F Poon · C Fownes 4 52.0 6
14 8 SUMMIT CHEERS TT A Badel · D J Hall 1 65.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAGIC CONTROL2. STELLAR EXPRESS+1L3. CELESTIAL COLOURS+1.25L4. FLYING HIGH+2L5. HASTEN DELIGHT+3.25L6. MIGHTY COMMANDER+3.75L7. CARROLL STREET+4L8. SAVVY BRILLIANT+4.5L9. ETERNAL FORTUNE+5L10. MULTISUPER+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SAVVY BRILLIANT (18.7%) finished 8th — the winner MAGIC CONTROL was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 SAVVY BRILLIANT 18.7% 5.35 8
2 3 HASTEN DELIGHT 13.0% 7.68 5
3 6 STELLAR EXPRESS 11.9% 8.37 2
4 14 MULTISUPER 10.6% 9.40 10
5 2 FLYING HIGH 10.3% 9.70 4
6 13 CAPITAL LEGEND 6.7% 14.82 13
7 7 PHOENIX LIGHT 5.1% 19.70 12
8 4 MAGIC CONTROL 4.9% 20.39 1
9 12 MIGHTY COMMANDER 4.2% 23.55 6
10 10 ETERNAL FORTUNE 3.6% 28.01 9
11 1 CARROLL STREET 3.6% 28.09 7
12 9 ORIENTAL SMOKE 2.5% 39.62 11
13 8 SUMMIT CHEERS 2.5% 39.65 14
14 5 CELESTIAL COLOURS 2.2% 45.05 3
SAVVY BRILLIANTHASTEN DELIGHTSTELLAR EXPRESSMULTISUPERFLYING HIGHCAPITAL LEGENDPHOENIX LIGHTMAGIC CONTROL — wonMIGHTY COMMANDERETERNAL FORTUNECARROLL STREETORIENTAL SMOKESUMMIT CHEERSCELESTIAL COLOURS

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 59

PLACE

4 22

5 52.5

6 16

QUINELLA

4,6 135.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,5 203.5

4,6 53.5

5,6 115

FORECAST

4,6 295

TIERCE

4,6,5 3,735

TRIO

4,5,6 916

FIRST 4

2,4,5,6 1,932

QUARTET

4,6,5,2 33,114

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

6/4 390.5

6/6 55.5