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Sha Tin · 2024-09-15

Race 2

Class 5 1400m Course A+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-15 was Class 5 over 1400m. GALE SAGA, ridden by M F Poon and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/4, with HO HO STAR second and DRAGON DELIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.8 favourite HO HO STAR finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 GALE SAGA Closed strongly B 1.21.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · P C Ng 8 17.0 1-1/4
2 12 HO HO STAR Closed strongly H Z Purton · C H Yip 3 1.8 1-1/4
3 6 DRAGON DELIGHT B/TT E C W Wong · D A Hayes 4 6.2 1-3/4
4 5 VERBIER Closed strongly B A Badel · C Fownes 1 26.0 2-1/4
5 8 THE KHAN Closed strongly H/SR H Bowman · C Fownes 10 9.3 2-1/2
6 11 TSUEN WAN GLORY Led early TT K C Leung · K L Man 11 18.0 3
7 9 SUPER JOY Closed strongly B/XB/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo 2 24.0 3-1/4
8 10 VULCANUS B- K Teetan · Y S Tsui 12 14.0 5
9 4 MERCHANT PRINCE Closed strongly V/TT B Thompson · J Richards 9 96.0 5-1/2
10 2 THE CONCENTRATION PC L Ferraris · P F Yiu 5 13.0 7-1/4
11 3 CHATEAU LE PECHE B C L Chau · K H Ting 7 31.0 9-1/4
12 7 EXCELLENT DADDY TT L Hewitson · T P Yung 6 53.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GALE SAGA2. HO HO STAR+1.25L3. DRAGON DELIGHT+1.75L4. VERBIER+2.25L5. THE KHAN+2.5L6. TSUEN WAN GLORY+3L7. SUPER JOY+3.25L8. VULCANUS+5L9. MERCHANT PRINCE+5.5L10. THE CONCENTRATION+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick HO HO STAR (38.2%) finished 2nd — the winner GALE SAGA was rated #9. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 HO HO STAR 38.2% 2.62 2
2 6 DRAGON DELIGHT 12.4% 8.09 3
3 8 THE KHAN 9.2% 10.87 5
4 2 THE CONCENTRATION 8.9% 11.27 10
5 9 SUPER JOY 6.2% 16.07 7
6 11 TSUEN WAN GLORY 5.7% 17.41 6
7 3 CHATEAU LE PECHE 4.5% 22.10 11
8 10 VULCANUS 3.8% 26.55 8
9 1 GALE SAGA 3.0% 32.83 1
10 5 VERBIER 2.8% 35.93 4
11 7 EXCELLENT DADDY 2.6% 37.84 12
12 4 MERCHANT PRINCE 2.6% 37.99 9
HO HO STARDRAGON DELIGHTTHE KHANTHE CONCENTRATIONSUPER JOYTSUEN WAN GLORYCHATEAU LE PECHEVULCANUSGALE SAGA — wonVERBIEREXCELLENT DADDYMERCHANT PRINCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 171.5

PLACE

1 43.5

6 18.5

12 11

QUINELLA

1,12 136

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 118

1,12 57

6,12 28.5

FORECAST

1,12 471

TIERCE

1,12,6 2,691

TRIO

1,6,12 280

FIRST 4

1,5,6,12 1,178

QUARTET

1,12,6,5 40,081

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

3/1 388.5

3/12 10.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

3,8,9/1,6,12 6,992