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Sha Tin · 2024-09-15

Race 5

Class 4 1400m Course A+3 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-15 was Class 4 over 1400m. TEAM HAPPY, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/2, with MIGHTY STRENGTH second and ENJOY GOLF third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.8 favourite AEROINVINCIBLE finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.21.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 TEAM HAPPY Closed strongly B 1.21.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · P C Ng 12 41.0 1-1/2
2 6 MIGHTY STRENGTH Closed strongly XB A Hamelin · P F Yiu 11 14.0 1-1/2
3 1 ENJOY GOLF Closed strongly H Bowman · F C Lor 10 5.1 1-3/4
4 7 ONLY U Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 5 12.0 3
5 9 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 2 38.0 3
6 2 AEROINVINCIBLE H-/SR/TT Z Purton · P C Ng 4 1.8 3-1/2
7 3 COMING PATCH Closed strongly C Y Ho · K H Ting 1 16.0 3-3/4
8 11 JOLLY COMPANION Led early CP/TT K C Leung · K L Man 8 26.0 4
9 5 HANDSOME BOMB TT A Atzeni · W Y So 9 12.0 5-3/4
10 4 ORIENTAL TYCOON P- M L Yeung · C W Chang 3 97.0 6
11 10 VANTASTIC CHOICE M F Poon · C H Yip 6 14.0 7-1/4
12 8 MEANINGFUL DRAGON CP-/B1 L Hewitson · K W Lui 7 69.0 29

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TEAM HAPPY2. MIGHTY STRENGTH+1.5L3. ENJOY GOLF+1.75L4. ONLY U+3L5. STRONGEST BOY+3L6. AEROINVINCIBLE+3.5L7. COMING PATCH+3.75L8. JOLLY COMPANION+4L9. HANDSOME BOMB+5.75L10. ORIENTAL TYCOON+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick AEROINVINCIBLE (25.1%) finished 6th — the winner TEAM HAPPY was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 AEROINVINCIBLE 25.1% 3.99 6
2 1 ENJOY GOLF 17.4% 5.76 3
3 5 HANDSOME BOMB 10.0% 10.01 9
4 3 COMING PATCH 7.5% 13.27 7
5 7 ONLY U 7.3% 13.70 4
6 9 STRONGEST BOY 7.0% 14.32 5
7 8 MEANINGFUL DRAGON 6.1% 16.42 12
8 10 VANTASTIC CHOICE 5.6% 17.84 11
9 11 JOLLY COMPANION 5.2% 19.40 8
10 6 MIGHTY STRENGTH 5.2% 19.42 2
11 12 TEAM HAPPY 2.9% 34.56 1
12 4 ORIENTAL TYCOON 0.8% 121.32 10
AEROINVINCIBLEENJOY GOLFHANDSOME BOMBCOMING PATCHONLY USTRONGEST BOYMEANINGFUL DRAGONVANTASTIC CHOICEJOLLY COMPANIONMIGHTY STRENGTHTEAM HAPPY — wonORIENTAL TYCOON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 414

PLACE

1 16.5

6 30.5

12 87.5

QUINELLA

6,12 3,178

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 84

1,12 262.5

6,12 667.5

FORECAST

12,6 5,177

TIERCE

12,6,1 29,455

TRIO

1,6,12 3,483

FIRST 4

1,6,7,12 6,424

QUARTET

12,6,1,7 176,174

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

4/13/6 173

4/13/12 5,183

4TH DOUBLE

13/6 102.5

13/12 2,632