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Sha Tin · 2024-09-15

Race 5

Class 4 1400m Course A+3 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.65
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 TEAM HAPPY Closed strongly B 1.21.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Y L Chung · P C Ng 12 41.0 1-1/2
2 6 MIGHTY STRENGTH Closed strongly XB A Hamelin · P F Yiu 11 14.0 1-1/2
3 1 ENJOY GOLF Closed strongly H Bowman · F C Lor 10 5.1 1-3/4
4 7 ONLY U Closed strongly B/TT C L Chau · T P Yung 5 12.0 3
5 9 STRONGEST BOY Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 2 38.0 3
6 2 AEROINVINCIBLE H-/SR/TT Z Purton · P C Ng 4 1.8 3-1/2
7 3 COMING PATCH Closed strongly C Y Ho · K H Ting 1 16.0 3-3/4
8 11 JOLLY COMPANION Led early CP/TT K C Leung · K L Man 8 26.0 4
9 5 HANDSOME BOMB TT A Atzeni · W Y So 9 12.0 5-3/4
10 4 ORIENTAL TYCOON P- M L Yeung · C W Chang 3 97.0 6
11 10 VANTASTIC CHOICE M F Poon · C H Yip 6 14.0 7-1/4
12 8 MEANINGFUL DRAGON CP-/B1 L Hewitson · K W Lui 7 69.0 29

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-15 was Class 4 over 1400m. TEAM HAPPY, ridden by Y L Chung and trained by P C Ng, won by 1-1/2, with MIGHTY STRENGTH second and ENJOY GOLF third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.8 favourite AEROINVINCIBLE finished 6th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TEAM HAPPY—2. MIGHTY STRENGTH+1.5L3. ENJOY GOLF+1.75L4. ONLY U+3L5. STRONGEST BOY+3L6. AEROINVINCIBLE+3.5L7. COMING PATCH+3.75L8. JOLLY COMPANION+4L9. HANDSOME BOMB+5.75L10. ORIENTAL TYCOON+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick AEROINVINCIBLE (25.1%) finished 6th — the winner TEAM HAPPY was rated #11. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 AEROINVINCIBLE 25.1% 3.99 6
2 1 ENJOY GOLF 17.4% 5.76 3
3 5 HANDSOME BOMB 10.0% 10.01 9
4 3 COMING PATCH 7.5% 13.27 7
5 7 ONLY U 7.3% 13.70 4
6 9 STRONGEST BOY 7.0% 14.32 5
7 8 MEANINGFUL DRAGON 6.1% 16.42 12
8 10 VANTASTIC CHOICE 5.6% 17.84 11
9 11 JOLLY COMPANION 5.2% 19.40 8
10 6 MIGHTY STRENGTH 5.2% 19.42 2
11 12 TEAM HAPPY 2.9% 34.56 1
12 4 ORIENTAL TYCOON 0.8% 121.32 10
AEROINVINCIBLEENJOY GOLFHANDSOME BOMBCOMING PATCHONLY USTRONGEST BOYMEANINGFUL DRAGONVANTASTIC CHOICEJOLLY COMPANIONMIGHTY STRENGTHTEAM HAPPY — wonORIENTAL TYCOON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 414

PLACE

1 16.5

6 30.5

12 87.5

QUINELLA

6,12 3,178

QUINELLA PLACE

1,6 84

1,12 262.5

6,12 667.5

FORECAST

12,6 5,177

TIERCE

12,6,1 29,455

TRIO

1,6,12 3,483

FIRST 4

1,6,7,12 6,424

QUARTET

12,6,1,7 176,174

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

4/13/6 173

4/13/12 5,183

4TH DOUBLE

13/6 102.5

13/12 2,632