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Sha Tin · 2024-09-15

Race 8

Class 3 1200m 12 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-09-15 was Class 3 over 1200m. SUPER WIN DRAGON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by W Y So, won by N, with CAPITAL DELIGHT second and TALENTS AMBITION third. The 3.6 favourite TALENTS AMBITION finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.08.74
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 6 SUPER WIN DRAGON V/TT 1.08.74 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · W Y So 4 7.5 N
2 1 CAPITAL DELIGHT TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 6.5 N
3 5 TALENTS AMBITION B/XB H Bentley · M Newnham 10 3.6 1/2
4 4 SELF IMPROVEMENT B/TT K Teetan · K L Man 11 4.8 3-1/4
5 3 PACKING BOLE TT C L Chau · C S Shum 2 4.3 3-1/4
6 7 VIVA CHALEUR PC M F Poon · P C Ng 3 14.0 6
7 10 MAJESTIC COLOUR B/TT K C Leung · D A Hayes 9 69.0 7-1/4
8 8 GOR MO TUEN TT B Thompson · D A Hayes 8 80.0 8-1/2
9 2 MAGNIAC V/TT A Atzeni · J Richards 1 27.0 8-1/2
10 12 UNPRESUMING B-/PC1 A Badel · J Size 6 21.0 11-3/4
11 11 NATURAL HIGH P N Wong · D J Hall 12 56.0 12-3/4
12 9 I AM THE BOSS CP/XB M L Yeung · K W Lui 7 83.0 13-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER WIN DRAGON2. CAPITAL DELIGHT+0.05L3. TALENTS AMBITION+0.5L4. SELF IMPROVEMENT+3.25L5. PACKING BOLE+3.25L6. VIVA CHALEUR+6L7. MAJESTIC COLOUR+7.25L8. GOR MO TUEN+8.5L9. MAGNIAC+8.5L10. UNPRESUMING+11.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick TALENTS AMBITION (25.3%) finished 3rd — the winner SUPER WIN DRAGON was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 TALENTS AMBITION 25.3% 3.95 3
2 6 SUPER WIN DRAGON 19.1% 5.24 1
3 1 CAPITAL DELIGHT 16.8% 5.95 2
4 3 PACKING BOLE 9.7% 10.33 5
5 4 SELF IMPROVEMENT 8.9% 11.24 4
6 12 UNPRESUMING 6.6% 15.20 10
7 7 VIVA CHALEUR 4.2% 23.65 6
8 2 MAGNIAC 3.1% 32.13 9
9 9 I AM THE BOSS 2.6% 38.83 12
10 10 MAJESTIC COLOUR 2.1% 48.13 7
11 8 GOR MO TUEN 0.9% 106.10 8
12 11 NATURAL HIGH 0.7% 148.57 11
TALENTS AMBITIONSUPER WIN DRAGON — wonCAPITAL DELIGHTPACKING BOLESELF IMPROVEMENTUNPRESUMINGVIVA CHALEURMAGNIACI AM THE BOSSMAJESTIC COLOURGOR MO TUENNATURAL HIGH

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 75.5

PLACE

1 20

5 14

6 21.5

QUINELLA

1,6 189

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 45

1,6 59.5

5,6 51

FORECAST

6,1 431

TIERCE

6,1,5 1,540

TRIO

1,5,6 202

FIRST 4

1,4,5,6 170

QUARTET

6,1,5,4 5,282

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

3,4,8/1,5,6 73,770

7TH DOUBLE

4/1 78

4/6 302.5