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Sha Tin · 2024-10-01 · 05:05

Race 1

Class 5 1400m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-01 was Class 5 over 1400m. THE KHAN, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C Fownes, won by 1/2, with JOYFUL LIFE second and MEDIC ELITE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite AROMATICA finished 6th.

Result

Official · 1.22.08
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 THE KHAN Closed strongly H-/SR 1.22.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C Fownes 7 6.1 1/2
2 2 JOYFUL LIFE TT K C Leung · P F Yiu 2 4.6 1/2
3 9 MEDIC ELITE Closed strongly PC/TT K Teetan · P C Ng 4 6.3 1
4 8 FIRE BALL CP Y L Chung · C H Yip 3 14.0 1-3/4
5 7 YOUTH POWER Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 11 42.0 2-1/4
6 4 AROMATICA TT Z Purton · W Y So 5 3.0 3-1/2
7 11 RED MAVERICK Led early L Hewitson · Y S Tsui 1 23.0 3-3/4
8 3 NOBLE WIN Closed strongly E-/XB/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 8 20.0 4-1/4
9 6 ALWAYS AWESOME Closed strongly V1 P N Wong · D J Hall 9 77.0 7-1/2
10 1 LINK CP/XB/TT2 A Badel · D J Whyte 6 15.0 10-1/2
11 10 TSUEN WAN GLORY TT M Chadwick · K L Man 10 11.0 11-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. THE KHAN2. JOYFUL LIFE+0.5L3. MEDIC ELITE+1L4. FIRE BALL+1.75L5. YOUTH POWER+2.25L6. AROMATICA+3.5L7. RED MAVERICK+3.75L8. NOBLE WIN+4.25L9. ALWAYS AWESOME+7.5L10. LINK+10.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick AROMATICA (28.5%) finished 6th — the winner THE KHAN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 AROMATICA 28.5% 3.51 6
2 5 THE KHAN 15.1% 6.61 1
3 2 JOYFUL LIFE 15.0% 6.67 2
4 9 MEDIC ELITE 9.0% 11.15 3
5 3 NOBLE WIN 8.8% 11.36 8
6 10 TSUEN WAN GLORY 7.9% 12.73 11
7 6 ALWAYS AWESOME 4.2% 23.94 9
8 7 YOUTH POWER 3.6% 27.50 5
9 11 RED MAVERICK 3.2% 30.82 7
10 8 FIRE BALL 2.5% 40.57 4
11 1 LINK 2.2% 44.92 10
AROMATICATHE KHAN — wonJOYFUL LIFEMEDIC ELITENOBLE WINTSUEN WAN GLORYALWAYS AWESOMEYOUTH POWERRED MAVERICKFIRE BALLLINK

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 61.5

PLACE

2 15

5 20.5

9 21.5

QUINELLA

2,5 135.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 48.5

2,9 55

5,9 62

FORECAST

5,2 362

TIERCE

5,2,9 1,432

TRIO

2,5,9 258

FIRST 4

2,5,8,9 826

QUARTET

5,2,9,8 12,553