Sha Tin · 2024-10-01 · 17:53
Race 10
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | WINNING GOLD Closed strongly H/TT 1.21.95 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 11 | 4.9 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 1 | TOP GUN Closed strongly Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 4 | 6.6 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | LO PAN SPIRIT B H Bentley · K H Ting | H Bentley | K H Ting | 10 | 5.6 | 1 |
| 4 | 8 | THE HEIR Closed strongly B1/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes | L Ferraris | C Fownes | 9 | 10.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 4 | NEVER TOO SOON Closed strongly P N Wong · D J Hall | P N Wong | D J Hall | 12 | 37.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 6 | 11 | MIGHTY STEED Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 7 | 10.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 6 | JOLLY RULER Led early CP/TT A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 5 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 7 | FUN TOGETHER Closed strongly CP/TT C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 1 | 13.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 2 | FIND MY LOVE TT M L Yeung · D J Whyte | M L Yeung | D J Whyte | 2 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 13 | ROMAN CROWN Closed strongly K Teetan · P C Ng | K Teetan | P C Ng | 6 | 11.0 | 5 |
| 11 | 14 | UNPRESUMING PC-/B2/TT1 A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 8 | 31.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 3 | BEAUTY GLORY CP/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz | B Avdulla | A S Cruz | 3 | 28.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 13 | 10 | THE WAY WE WIN Closed strongly CP1/TT1 K C Leung · C S Shum | K C Leung | C S Shum | 14 | 70.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 14 | 12 | ARIEL CP/TT L Hewitson · D A Hayes | L Hewitson | D A Hayes | 13 | 26.0 | 6-3/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-01 was Class 3 over 1400m. WINNING GOLD, ridden by K De Melo and trained by W Y So, won by 1/2, with TOP GUN second and LO PAN SPIRIT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 4.9 favourite.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | TOP GUN | 17.3% | 5.77 | 2 |
| 2 | 9 | WINNING GOLD | 13.4% | 7.44 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | LO PAN SPIRIT | 11.5% | 8.72 | 3 |
| 4 | 8 | THE HEIR | 8.4% | 11.91 | 4 |
| 5 | 4 | NEVER TOO SOON | 6.8% | 14.67 | 5 |
| 6 | 12 | ARIEL | 6.3% | 15.78 | 14 |
| 7 | 7 | FUN TOGETHER | 6.2% | 16.16 | 8 |
| 8 | 2 | FIND MY LOVE | 6.2% | 16.21 | 9 |
| 9 | 14 | UNPRESUMING | 5.1% | 19.60 | 11 |
| 10 | 6 | JOLLY RULER | 4.9% | 20.31 | 7 |
| 11 | 11 | MIGHTY STEED | 4.9% | 20.35 | 6 |
| 12 | 3 | BEAUTY GLORY | 3.4% | 29.77 | 12 |
| 13 | 10 | THE WAY WE WIN | 3.1% | 31.87 | 13 |
| 14 | 13 | ROMAN CROWN | 2.4% | 41.64 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 49.5
PLACE
1 28
5 22.5
9 17.5
QUINELLA
1,9 225
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 96
1,9 86.5
5,9 62
FORECAST
9,1 406
TIERCE
9,1,5 1,561
TRIO
1,5,9 343
FIRST 4
1,5,8,9 720
QUARTET
9,1,5,8 12,141
All pools (4 more)
2ND TREBLE
4/7/1 759
4/7/9 3,239
5TH DOUBLE TRIO
6,7,9/1,5,9 4,430
9TH DOUBLE
7/1 25
7/9 97
SIX UP
11,13/1,14/2,6,8/4,5/6,7/1,9 4,369
13/14/2,6/4/7/9 2,793,217
3 [P C Ng] —
1 [Z Purton] —