Sha Tin · 2024-10-01 · 06:35
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-01 was Class 4 over 1200m. GENEVA, ridden by H Bowman and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with PATCH OF TIME second and CIRCUIT VICTORY third. Victory came as the 1.6 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GENEVA 1.09.33 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 10 | 1.6 | N |
| 2 | 11 | PATCH OF TIME H K Teetan · W K Mo | K Teetan | W K Mo | 6 | 12.0 | N |
| 3 | 9 | CIRCUIT VICTORY K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 3 | 30.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 4 | CHEERFUL WORLD L Ferraris · F C Lor | L Ferraris | F C Lor | 1 | 15.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | TOP SCORER B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 5 | 7.8 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 7 | HAPPY PARK XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 2 | 9.8 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | JUDY'S GREAT TT Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 11 | 28.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | GOOD PROSPECT XB/H1 C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | 9 | 98.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | SILVER DESTINY B Y L Chung · C H Yip | Y L Chung | C H Yip | 7 | 10.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 10 | 6 | THE PRIME CP1/TT1 L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 4 | 42.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 5 | NIGHT PUROSANGUE M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 8 | 123.0 | 12-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | GENEVA | 30.9% | 3.24 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | HAPPY PARK | 15.9% | 6.28 | 6 |
| 3 | 10 | SILVER DESTINY | 10.8% | 9.25 | 9 |
| 4 | 1 | TOP SCORER | 10.5% | 9.53 | 5 |
| 5 | 11 | PATCH OF TIME | 9.5% | 10.54 | 2 |
| 6 | 4 | CHEERFUL WORLD | 6.9% | 14.41 | 4 |
| 7 | 3 | JUDY'S GREAT | 5.2% | 19.40 | 7 |
| 8 | 6 | THE PRIME | 4.3% | 23.20 | 10 |
| 9 | 5 | NIGHT PUROSANGUE | 2.8% | 35.62 | 11 |
| 10 | 9 | CIRCUIT VICTORY | 2.1% | 47.00 | 3 |
| 11 | 8 | GOOD PROSPECT | 1.0% | 96.03 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 16
PLACE
2 10.1
9 58
11 27
QUINELLA
2,11 67
QUINELLA PLACE
2,9 92.5
2,11 30
9,11 280.5
FORECAST
2,11 113
TIERCE
2,11,9 1,526
TRIO
2,9,11 578
FIRST 4
2,4,9,11 1,104
QUARTET
2,11,9,4 12,675
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,8,9/2,9,11 7,569
3RD DOUBLE
8/2 87.5
8/11 70