Sha Tin · 2024-10-01 · 05:35
Race 2
Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-01 was Class 5 over 1200m. COMMANDING MISSILE, ridden by C L Chau and trained by C W Chang, won by 2-1/4, with BEAT HOLLOW second and CHILLI BABA third. The 3.2 favourite HO HO STAR finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | COMMANDING MISSILE 1.09.65 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C L Chau · C W Chang | C L Chau | C W Chang | 8 | 15.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 9 | BEAT HOLLOW Y L Chung · Y S Tsui | Y L Chung | Y S Tsui | 7 | 10.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | CHILLI BABA B/TT1 A Atzeni · P F Yiu | A Atzeni | P F Yiu | 3 | 3.8 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 6 | E GLORY B/TT K C Leung · W K Mo | K C Leung | W K Mo | 4 | 31.0 | 3 |
| 5 | 5 | MANYTHANKS FOREVER B-/TT C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 9 | 65.0 | 3 |
| 6 | 1 | SUPER ELITE B/H/XB H Bowman · D J Hall | H Bowman | D J Hall | 10 | 8.6 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | SAME TO YOU H/P/TT B Avdulla · M Newnham | B Avdulla | M Newnham | 6 | 8.5 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | HO HO STAR H Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 11 | 3.2 | 5 |
| 9 | 7 | RATTAN WORLD B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 5 | 17.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 10 | THE GOOD DEAL B/TT K Teetan · D J Whyte | K Teetan | D J Whyte | 1 | 6.9 | 8 |
| — | 11 | MORE RICE L Hewitson · W Y So | L Hewitson | W Y So | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | HO HO STAR | 25.7% | 3.89 | 8 |
| 2 | 2 | CHILLI BABA | 22.6% | 4.43 | 3 |
| 3 | 3 | SAME TO YOU | 14.2% | 7.03 | 7 |
| 4 | 10 | THE GOOD DEAL | 9.9% | 10.11 | 10 |
| 5 | 1 | SUPER ELITE | 8.7% | 11.51 | 6 |
| 6 | 9 | BEAT HOLLOW | 5.2% | 19.11 | 2 |
| 7 | 4 | COMMANDING MISSILE | 5.0% | 19.97 | 1 |
| 8 | 7 | RATTAN WORLD | 4.7% | 21.16 | 9 |
| 9 | 6 | E GLORY | 2.7% | 37.03 | 4 |
| 10 | 5 | MANYTHANKS FOREVER | 1.3% | 79.66 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
4 154
PLACE
2 16
4 41.5
9 33.5
QUINELLA
4,9 893.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 91.5
2,9 78
4,9 253.5
FORECAST
4,9 1,541
TIERCE
4,9,2 6,391
TRIO
2,4,9 1,351
FIRST 4
2,4,6,9 7,387
QUARTET
4,9,2,6 193,546
All pools (2 more)
1ST DOUBLE
5/4 1,380
5/9 388
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,9/2,4,9 145,470