Sha Tin · 2024-10-01 · 08:15

Race 7

Group 3 1000m Course C+3 8 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-01 was Group 3 over 1000m. BEAUTY WAVES, ridden by A Badel and trained by P C Ng, won by 1/2, with MAGIC CONTROL second and WHIZZ KID third. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 0.55.72

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	6	BEAUTY WAVES E/TT 0.55.72 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · P C Ng	A Badel	P C Ng	4	115 lb	2.2	1/2
2	8	MAGIC CONTROL TT M Chadwick · W K Mo	M Chadwick	W K Mo	6	115 lb	3.9	1/2
3	4	WHIZZ KID V/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz	H Bentley	A S Cruz	9	115 lb	24.0	1-1/2
4	7	CALL ME GLORIOUS L Hewitson · K W Lui	L Hewitson	K W Lui	5	115 lb	5.3	2
5	3	MAJESTIC KNIGHT B K Teetan · D J Whyte	K Teetan	D J Whyte	1	120 lb	34.0	2-3/4
6	1	INVINCIBLE SAGE CP H Bowman · D J Hall	H Bowman	D J Hall	3	135 lb	7.2	4
7	5	NERVOUS WITNESS CP- A Atzeni · D A Hayes	A Atzeni	D A Hayes	7	115 lb	12.0	5-3/4
8	9	BABY CRYSTAL B/TT Y L Chung · K W Lui	Y L Chung	K W Lui	8	115 lb	43.0	8-1/4
—	2	STOLTZ Z Purton · K W Lui	Z Purton	K W Lui	—	130 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick INVINCIBLE SAGE (27.6%) finished 6th — the winner BEAUTY WAVES was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	INVINCIBLE SAGE	27.6%	3.62	6	7.2
2	6	BEAUTY WAVES	20.2%	4.95	1	2.2
3	8	MAGIC CONTROL	16.4%	6.11	2	3.9
4	7	CALL ME GLORIOUS	16.3%	6.13	4	5.3
5	5	NERVOUS WITNESS	6.3%	15.92	7	12.0
6	3	MAJESTIC KNIGHT	5.4%	18.63	5	34.0
7	4	WHIZZ KID	4.2%	24.03	3	24.0
8	9	BABY CRYSTAL	3.7%	26.79	8	43.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

6 22

PLACE

4 42

6 11.5

8 13

QUINELLA

6,8 43

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 71.5

4,8 114.5

6,8 20.5

FORECAST

6,8 79

TIERCE

6,8,4 653

TRIO

4,6,8 212

FIRST 4

4,6,7,8 155

QUARTET

6,8,4,7 1,987

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

14/2,6 378.5

14/8 105.5

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