Sha Tin · 2024-10-01 · 06:05

Race 3

Class 4 1200m Course C+3 10 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-01 was Class 4 over 1200m. GREAT SPIRIT, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with NEW FUTURE FOLKS second and TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR third. Victory came as the 2.8 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.08

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	8	GREAT SPIRIT 1.09.08 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C H Yip	M F Poon	C H Yip	2	121 lb	2.8	N
2	2	NEW FUTURE FOLKS B Thompson · C W Chang	B Thompson	C W Chang	10	132 lb	3.5	N
3	9	TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR TT K C Leung · C S Shum	K C Leung	C S Shum	1	123 lb	9.3	1/2
4	1	ERNEST FEELING B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards	A Hamelin	J Richards	6	135 lb	26.0	2-3/4
5	3	BIENVENUE L Hewitson · D A Hayes	L Hewitson	D A Hayes	3	130 lb	66.0	2-3/4
6	10	GLUCK RACER H M L Yeung · W K Mo	M L Yeung	W K Mo	9	120 lb	9.0	4-1/4
7	7	LESS IS MORE TT M Chadwick · F C Lor	M Chadwick	F C Lor	5	127 lb	12.0	6
8	4	CIRCUS REEL B Avdulla · D J Hall	B Avdulla	D J Hall	4	130 lb	31.0	6
9	6	SUNNY DARLING SR/B1/TT P N Wong · P C Ng	P N Wong	P C Ng	7	119 lb	11.0	6-1/4
10	5	ENSHINE B1/H1 Z Purton · K L Man	Z Purton	K L Man	8	130 lb	10.0	10-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25

The model's top pick ENSHINE (23.2%) finished 10th — the winner GREAT SPIRIT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	5	ENSHINE	23.2%	4.32	10	10.0
2	8	GREAT SPIRIT	16.8%	5.95	1	2.8
3	2	NEW FUTURE FOLKS	16.1%	6.20	2	3.5
4	9	TRIUMPHANT WARRIOR	8.9%	11.30	3	9.3
5	10	GLUCK RACER	7.9%	12.66	6	9.0
6	7	LESS IS MORE	7.6%	13.22	7	12.0
7	6	SUNNY DARLING	6.9%	14.40	9	11.0
8	3	BIENVENUE	4.6%	21.61	5	66.0
9	4	CIRCUS REEL	4.1%	24.38	8	31.0
10	1	ERNEST FEELING	3.9%	25.54	4	26.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 28

PLACE

2 15

8 13.5

9 24.5

QUINELLA

2,8 77.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,8 31

2,9 68.5

8,9 41

FORECAST

8,2 147

TIERCE

8,2,9 770

TRIO

2,8,9 176

FIRST 4

1,2,8,9 708

QUARTET

8,2,9,1 10,096

All pools (1 more)

2ND DOUBLE

4/2 115

4/8 830.5

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