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Sha Tin · 2024-10-20 · 06:45

Race 1

Class 5 1600m Course B+2 13 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-20 was Class 5 over 1600m. YOUTH POWER, ridden by M L Yeung and trained by D A Hayes, won by 2-1/2, with CASA LEGEND second and PAKISTAN FRIEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.6 favourite CASA LEGEND finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.34.82
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 YOUTH POWER Closed strongly B/TT 1.34.82 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M L Yeung · D A Hayes 1 5.2 2-1/2
2 3 CASA LEGEND Closed strongly P/TT M F Poon · C W Chang 7 4.6 2-1/2
3 5 PAKISTAN FRIEND Closed strongly P/TT Z Purton · W Y So 3 6.6 2-3/4
4 13 RED MAVERICK Closed strongly Y L Chung · Y S Tsui 8 37.0 3-1/4
5 1 NOT A FEW Closed strongly TT H Bowman · D Eustace 10 11.0 3-1/2
6 4 MISTER FOX Closed strongly CP- A Badel · D J Hall 11 53.0 3-3/4
7 6 MERCHANT PRINCE V-/B2/TT B Thompson · J Richards 13 61.0 4-3/4
8 2 NOBLE WIN Closed strongly B/XB/TT A Atzeni · D Eustace 2 5.9 5-1/4
9 9 PRECISION GOAL Led early CP/TT K Teetan · D A Hayes 5 6.3 5-3/4
10 10 BEAU GOSSE B-/XB/H2 C L Chau · K W Lui 4 10.0 7-3/4
11 12 E TALENT B/TT P N Wong · K L Man 6 91.0 8-3/4
12 7 HARRY'S HERO H M Chadwick · P F Yiu 12 19.0 9-1/4
13 11 LADY BILLIE H K C Leung · W K Mo 9 80.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. YOUTH POWER2. CASA LEGEND+2.5L3. PAKISTAN FRIEND+2.75L4. RED MAVERICK+3.25L5. NOT A FEW+3.5L6. MISTER FOX+3.75L7. MERCHANT PRINCE+4.75L8. NOBLE WIN+5.25L9. PRECISION GOAL+5.75L10. BEAU GOSSE+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick YOUTH POWER (23.2%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 8 YOUTH POWER 23.2% 4.31 1
2 2 NOBLE WIN 12.2% 8.23 8
3 5 PAKISTAN FRIEND 12.1% 8.25 3
4 9 PRECISION GOAL 9.4% 10.69 9
5 10 BEAU GOSSE 9.1% 11.00 10
6 3 CASA LEGEND 8.8% 11.38 2
7 1 NOT A FEW 7.2% 13.86 5
8 7 HARRY'S HERO 6.2% 16.18 12
9 6 MERCHANT PRINCE 3.1% 31.83 7
10 13 RED MAVERICK 3.1% 32.40 4
11 12 E TALENT 2.2% 46.33 11
12 4 MISTER FOX 1.9% 53.22 6
13 11 LADY BILLIE 1.6% 61.38 13
YOUTH POWER — wonNOBLE WINPAKISTAN FRIENDPRECISION GOALBEAU GOSSECASA LEGENDNOT A FEWHARRY'S HEROMERCHANT PRINCERED MAVERICKE TALENTMISTER FOXLADY BILLIE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 52

PLACE

3 14.5

5 26.5

8 19

QUINELLA

3,8 129.5

QUINELLA PLACE

3,5 65

3,8 48

5,8 69.5

FORECAST

8,3 291

TIERCE

8,3,5 1,525

TRIO

3,5,8 217

FIRST 4

3,5,8,13 1,707

QUARTET

8,3,5,13 35,010