Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-10-20 · 08:55

Race 8

Class 3 1200m Course B+2 13 runners

Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-20 was Class 3 over 1200m. PACKING HERMOD, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with SUPER INFINITY second and ARMOUR WAR EAGLE third. Victory came as the 1.5 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 PACKING HERMOD 1.09.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K W Lui 12 1.5 1-1/4
2 12 SUPER INFINITY CP H Bentley · M Newnham 1 5.2 1-1/4
3 13 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE H-/XB- L Hewitson · M Newnham 3 11.0 2-1/2
4 1 I GIVE A Atzeni · P C Ng 10 51.0 2-1/2
5 5 CAPTAIN WIN B K Teetan · P C Ng 14 14.0 2-3/4
6 8 GIDDY UP TT A Hamelin · J Richards 9 36.0 3-1/2
7 6 GREAT STATE TT M L Yeung · W Y So 2 39.0 3-3/4
8 9 GOKO WIN B M Chadwick · D J Whyte 11 26.0 4-1/4
9 10 MAGNIFICENT NINE B/E M F Poon · J Size 7 23.0 5-1/4
10 11 THUNDER BLINK C L Chau · K H Ting 4 29.0 6
11 7 DASHING DRAGON B Thompson · D A Hayes 8 133.0 7-1/2
12 14 ELEGANT LIFE CP A Badel · T P Yung 13 40.0 7-1/2
13 4 PERFUSE V1 K De Melo · D J Hall 6 221.0 17-1/4
3 YOUNG SUPERSTAR Y L Chung · A S Cruz

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PACKING HERMOD2. SUPER INFINITY+1.25L3. ARMOUR WAR EAGLE+2.5L4. I GIVE+2.5L5. CAPTAIN WIN+2.75L6. GIDDY UP+3.5L7. GREAT STATE+3.75L8. GOKO WIN+4.25L9. MAGNIFICENT NINE+5.25L10. THUNDER BLINK+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PACKING HERMOD (46.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 PACKING HERMOD 46.6% 2.14 1
2 12 SUPER INFINITY 14.8% 6.75 2
3 5 CAPTAIN WIN 8.9% 11.20 5
4 11 THUNDER BLINK 6.6% 15.08 10
5 10 MAGNIFICENT NINE 5.8% 17.28 9
6 1 I GIVE 3.2% 31.60 4
7 6 GREAT STATE 2.7% 37.19 7
8 13 ARMOUR WAR EAGLE 2.7% 37.25 3
9 9 GOKO WIN 2.6% 39.19 8
10 8 GIDDY UP 2.1% 48.25 6
11 4 PERFUSE 1.9% 51.68 13
12 14 ELEGANT LIFE 1.4% 70.45 12
13 7 DASHING DRAGON 0.7% 148.98 11
PACKING HERMOD — wonSUPER INFINITYCAPTAIN WINTHUNDER BLINKMAGNIFICENT NINEI GIVEGREAT STATEARMOUR WAR EAGLEGOKO WINGIDDY UPPERFUSEELEGANT LIFEDASHING DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 15.5

PLACE

2 10.1

12 16

13 26

QUINELLA

2,12 33

QUINELLA PLACE

2,12 18

2,13 34

12,13 52.5

FORECAST

2,12 49

TIERCE

2,12,13 253

TRIO

2,12,13 95

FIRST 4

1,2,12,13 691

QUARTET

2,12,13,1 3,876

All pools (2 more)

4TH DOUBLE TRIO

1,2,11/2,3,12,13 1,503

7TH DOUBLE

2/2,3 15

2/12 17