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Sha Tin · 2024-10-20 · 08:15

Race 7

Group 2 1200m Course B+2 13 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-20 was Group 2 over 1200m. KA YING RISING, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D A Hayes, won by 1-1/2, with HELIOS EXPRESS second and CALIFORNIA SPANGLE third. Victory came as the 1.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.07.57
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 KA YING RISING 1.07.57 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D A Hayes 9 1.3 1-1/2
2 11 HELIOS EXPRESS A Badel · J Size 13 18.0 1-1/2
3 1 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 3 9.3 3
4 8 BEAUTY WAVES E/TT M Chadwick · P C Ng 10 7.8 3
5 9 LUCKY WITH YOU A Atzeni · F C Lor 12 138.0 3
6 6 FLYING ACE B M F Poon · D J Hall 1 69.0 3-1/2
7 7 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE K Teetan · J Size 2 16.0 4
8 13 HARMONY N BLESSED B/TT K De Melo · D A Hayes 4 43.0 5
9 12 PACKING TREADMILL SR-/CP1 L Hewitson · K W Lui 8 157.0 5-1/4
10 3 INVINCIBLE SAGE CP H Bowman · D J Hall 5 27.0 6
11 4 TAJ DRAGON B1 C Y Ho · P C Ng 7 52.0 6-3/4
12 5 ENCOUNTERED B2/TT- H Bentley · D J Hall 6 183.0 7-1/2
13 10 MAJESTIC KNIGHT B M L Yeung · D J Whyte 11 227.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KA YING RISING2. HELIOS EXPRESS+1.5L3. CALIFORNIA SPANGLE+3L4. BEAUTY WAVES+3L5. LUCKY WITH YOU+3L6. FLYING ACE+3.5L7. HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE+4L8. HARMONY N BLESSED+5L9. PACKING TREADMILL+5.25L10. INVINCIBLE SAGE+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick KA YING RISING (49.9%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 KA YING RISING 49.9% 2.01 1
2 1 CALIFORNIA SPANGLE 14.0% 7.13 3
3 8 BEAUTY WAVES 9.0% 11.10 4
4 3 INVINCIBLE SAGE 7.6% 13.10 10
5 11 HELIOS EXPRESS 4.2% 24.00 2
6 7 HOWDEEPISYOURLOVE 3.9% 25.41 7
7 13 HARMONY N BLESSED 2.1% 47.44 8
8 6 FLYING ACE 2.0% 48.84 6
9 4 TAJ DRAGON 2.0% 50.91 11
10 9 LUCKY WITH YOU 1.4% 69.77 5
11 5 ENCOUNTERED 1.4% 70.02 12
12 10 MAJESTIC KNIGHT 1.3% 79.25 13
13 12 PACKING TREADMILL 1.1% 88.30 9
KA YING RISING — wonCALIFORNIA SPANGLEBEAUTY WAVESINVINCIBLE SAGEHELIOS EXPRESSHOWDEEPISYOURLOVEHARMONY N BLESSEDFLYING ACETAJ DRAGONLUCKY WITH YOUENCOUNTEREDMAJESTIC KNIGHTPACKING TREADMILL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 13.5

PLACE

1 18.5

2 10.1

11 37.5

QUINELLA

2,11 95

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 19.5

1,11 150

2,11 42

FORECAST

2,11 127

TIERCE

2,11,1 573

TRIO

1,2,11 187

FIRST 4

1,2,8,11 177

QUARTET

2,11,1,8 2,248

All pools (1 more)

6TH DOUBLE

13/2 124

13/11 379.5