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Sha Tin · 2024-10-20 · 10:00

Race 10

Class 3 1400m Course B+2 13 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-20 was Class 3 over 1400m. GREEN N WHITE, ridden by H Bowman and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-3/4, with SKY TRUST second and PRESTIGE ALWAYS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.4 favourite SKY TRUST finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.21.48
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 GREEN N WHITE Closed strongly TT- 1.21.48 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · P F Yiu 8 4.8 1-3/4
2 11 SKY TRUST Closed strongly H/TT L Ferraris · C Fownes 2 2.4 1-3/4
3 2 PRESTIGE ALWAYS B Z Purton · P C Ng 12 6.2 2-1/2
4 3 HUGE WAVE Closed strongly TT A Badel · K H Ting 7 17.0 3-1/2
5 8 LESLIE Closed strongly B K C Leung · C W Chang 13 25.0 3-3/4
6 4 KING MILES Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 9 7.9 3-3/4
7 6 NEVER TOO SOON Closed strongly P N Wong · D J Hall 10 30.0 4-1/4
8 13 ORIENTAL SMOKE B/TT B Thompson · D A Hayes 3 59.0 4-1/2
9 5 SIMPLE HEDGE Closed strongly E A Atzeni · J Size 1 37.0 4-3/4
10 7 BEAUTY GLORY CP/TT B Avdulla · A S Cruz 5 48.0 5-1/4
11 12 SUPER GOLDI TT K Teetan · F C Lor 14 55.0 5-1/4
12 9 NOT USUAL STAR Led early H/TT L Hewitson · W Y So 6 17.0 6
13 14 MOJAVE DESERT B M L Yeung · D A Hayes 11 57.0 11-3/4
10 TIMES TABLE M Chadwick · M Newnham 4 36.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GREEN N WHITE2. SKY TRUST+1.75L3. PRESTIGE ALWAYS+2.5L4. HUGE WAVE+3.5L5. LESLIE+3.75L6. KING MILES+3.75L7. NEVER TOO SOON+4.25L8. ORIENTAL SMOKE+4.5L9. SIMPLE HEDGE+4.75L10. BEAUTY GLORY+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SKY TRUST (36.0%) finished 2nd — the winner GREEN N WHITE was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 SKY TRUST 36.0% 2.78 2
2 2 PRESTIGE ALWAYS 12.8% 7.80 3
3 4 KING MILES 10.3% 9.74 6
4 1 GREEN N WHITE 7.8% 12.75 1
5 9 NOT USUAL STAR 7.1% 14.07 12
6 5 SIMPLE HEDGE 6.0% 16.63 9
7 8 LESLIE 4.9% 20.22 5
8 3 HUGE WAVE 3.9% 25.40 4
9 12 SUPER GOLDI 3.3% 30.13 11
10 6 NEVER TOO SOON 2.5% 39.23 7
11 13 ORIENTAL SMOKE 2.0% 50.70 8
12 7 BEAUTY GLORY 1.9% 53.20 10
13 14 MOJAVE DESERT 1.3% 75.02 13
SKY TRUSTPRESTIGE ALWAYSKING MILESGREEN N WHITE — wonNOT USUAL STARSIMPLE HEDGELESLIEHUGE WAVESUPER GOLDINEVER TOO SOONORIENTAL SMOKEBEAUTY GLORYMOJAVE DESERT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 48.5

PLACE

1 18.5

2 22

11 13.5

QUINELLA

1,11 62.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 61.5

1,11 29

2,11 42

FORECAST

1,11 162

TIERCE

1,11,2 765

TRIO

1,2,11 160

FIRST 4

1,2,3,11 383

QUARTET

1,11,2,3 8,075

All pools (4 more)

2ND TREBLE

2,3/13/1 2,501

2,3/13/11 345

5TH DOUBLE TRIO

8,9,13/1,2,11 433,206

9TH DOUBLE

13/1 1,617

13/11 142

SIX UP

4,10/5,13/2,11/2,3,12/8,9,13/1,11 2,719

10/13/2/2,3/13/1 101,791

1 [Z Purton]

1 [D A Hayes]