Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2024-10-20 · 07:15

Race 5

Class 2 1600m Course B+2 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-20 was Class 2 over 1600m. KARMA, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by C Fownes, won by 1-1/2, with HELENE FEELING second and PATCH OF THETA third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.9 favourite PATCH OF THETA finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.33.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 10 KARMA Closed strongly TT 1.33.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · C Fownes 9 3.7 1-1/2
2 4 HELENE FEELING Closed strongly B/TT B Avdulla · C S Shum 2 31.0 1-1/2
3 6 PATCH OF THETA Closed strongly XB H Bowman · K W Lui 12 2.9 1-3/4
4 3 C P BRAVE Closed strongly V H Bentley · P F Yiu 5 78.0 1-3/4
5 7 STUNNING PEACH Closed strongly TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 11 5.5 1-3/4
6 8 SUPREME LUCKY TT M F Poon · C S Shum 1 15.0 2-3/4
7 2 MONEY CATCHER B K C Leung · F C Lor 6 71.0 3-3/4
8 12 STAR CONTACT B/TT P N Wong · D A Hayes 10 16.0 4-1/2
9 9 THE BEST PEACH Closed strongly TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 7 50.0 4-3/4
10 1 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT B/TT A Badel · K L Man 3 12.0 5-1/4
11 11 TOP GUN M Chadwick · F C Lor 8 9.1 10-3/4
12 5 FLAMING RABBIT Led early B-/CP2/SR2/TT L Ferraris · D J Whyte 4 43.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. KARMA2. HELENE FEELING+1.5L3. PATCH OF THETA+1.75L4. C P BRAVE+1.75L5. STUNNING PEACH+1.75L6. SUPREME LUCKY+2.75L7. MONEY CATCHER+3.75L8. STAR CONTACT+4.5L9. THE BEST PEACH+4.75L10. CHIU CHOW SPIRIT+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick PATCH OF THETA (27.2%) finished 3rd — the winner KARMA was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 6 PATCH OF THETA 27.2% 3.68 3
2 10 KARMA 14.8% 6.78 1
3 7 STUNNING PEACH 13.7% 7.29 5
4 12 STAR CONTACT 10.0% 10.02 8
5 11 TOP GUN 8.3% 12.03 11
6 1 CHIU CHOW SPIRIT 8.0% 12.54 10
7 8 SUPREME LUCKY 3.7% 27.31 6
8 3 C P BRAVE 3.1% 32.05 4
9 4 HELENE FEELING 3.1% 32.06 2
10 5 FLAMING RABBIT 2.9% 34.41 12
11 9 THE BEST PEACH 2.7% 36.54 9
12 2 MONEY CATCHER 2.5% 39.31 7
PATCH OF THETAKARMA — wonSTUNNING PEACHSTAR CONTACTTOP GUNCHIU CHOW SPIRITSUPREME LUCKYC P BRAVEHELENE FEELINGFLAMING RABBITTHE BEST PEACHMONEY CATCHER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 37.5

PLACE

4 59

6 15

10 12.5

QUINELLA

4,10 561.5

QUINELLA PLACE

4,6 139

4,10 167.5

6,10 24

FORECAST

10,4 903

TIERCE

10,4,6 3,918

TRIO

4,6,10 404

FIRST 4

3,4,6,10 3,218

QUARTET

10,4,6,3 72,720

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

2/2/4 4,031

2/2/10 3,926

4TH DOUBLE

2/4 646.5

2/10 955