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Sha Tin · 2024-10-20 · 06:20

Race 4

Class 4 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-20 was Class 4 over 1200m. MAJESTIC EXPRESS, ridden by B Avdulla and trained by J Size, won by SH, with SUPER LEGENDS second and SPICY SPANGLE third. The 3.4 favourite SUPER LEGENDS finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.09.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 MAJESTIC EXPRESS E 1.09.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Avdulla · J Size 12 20.0 SH
2 3 SUPER LEGENDS TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 5 3.4 SH
3 13 SPICY SPANGLE TT M F Poon · P C Ng 7 40.0 N
4 11 FUN N GLORY XB P N Wong · D J Hall 13 6.3 1
5 1 BEAUTY MISSILE PC A Hamelin · F C Lor 6 7.1 2-1/4
6 6 BIENVENUE L Hewitson · D A Hayes 3 13.0 2-1/4
7 10 HAPPY PARK XB A Atzeni · K W Lui 9 8.7 2-3/4
8 14 GLUCK RACER H/V2 M Chadwick · W K Mo 8 25.0 3
9 4 GIANT LEAP B-/SB1 C L Chau · P F Yiu 1 5.6 3-3/4
10 5 PANDA B A Badel · C H Yip 4 28.0 5-1/2
11 7 CARRYON SMILING H1/TT1 M L Yeung · W Y So 14 171.0 5-3/4
12 8 EXCEED THE WISH L Ferraris · M Newnham 11 33.0 7-1/4
13 9 LUCKY GENERATIONS SR/TT H Bowman · C Fownes 10 18.0 10-1/2
14 12 DOUBLE BINGO SR-/H/TT- K Teetan · Y S Tsui 2 47.0 11-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. MAJESTIC EXPRESS2. SUPER LEGENDS+0.1L3. SPICY SPANGLE+0.05L4. FUN N GLORY+1L5. BEAUTY MISSILE+2.25L6. BIENVENUE+2.25L7. HAPPY PARK+2.75L8. GLUCK RACER+3L9. GIANT LEAP+3.75L10. PANDA+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick SUPER LEGENDS (18.7%) finished 2nd — the winner MAJESTIC EXPRESS was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SUPER LEGENDS 18.7% 5.34 2
2 1 BEAUTY MISSILE 13.8% 7.25 5
3 4 GIANT LEAP 10.6% 9.42 9
4 2 MAJESTIC EXPRESS 8.7% 11.54 1
5 10 HAPPY PARK 7.8% 12.82 7
6 11 FUN N GLORY 7.0% 14.22 4
7 9 LUCKY GENERATIONS 5.9% 16.95 13
8 8 EXCEED THE WISH 5.9% 17.01 12
9 14 GLUCK RACER 5.8% 17.19 8
10 6 BIENVENUE 3.7% 26.88 6
11 13 SPICY SPANGLE 3.3% 30.13 3
12 7 CARRYON SMILING 3.0% 33.09 11
13 12 DOUBLE BINGO 2.9% 34.65 14
14 5 PANDA 2.8% 35.30 10
SUPER LEGENDSBEAUTY MISSILEGIANT LEAPMAJESTIC EXPRESS — wonHAPPY PARKFUN N GLORYLUCKY GENERATIONSEXCEED THE WISHGLUCK RACERBIENVENUESPICY SPANGLECARRYON SMILINGDOUBLE BINGOPANDA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 207

PLACE

2 60.5

3 14

13 113.5

QUINELLA

2,3 369.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 138.5

2,13 762

3,13 247

FORECAST

2,3 903

TIERCE

2,3,13 20,794

TRIO

2,3,13 4,010

FIRST 4

2,3,11,13 5,357

QUARTET

2,3,13,11 140,936

All pools (2 more)

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

14>1,2,6/2,3,13 149,731

3RD DOUBLE

2/2 654

2/3 32.5