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Sha Tin · 2024-10-20 · 07:45

Race 6

Class 4 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2024-10-20 was Class 4 over 1200m. PATCH OF TIME, ridden by K Teetan and trained by W K Mo, won by N, with BLAZING WIND second and HAROLD WIN third. The 3.4 favourite COURIER ALADDIN finished 11th.

Result

Official · 1.09.18
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 PATCH OF TIME H 1.09.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · W K Mo 4 6.3 N
2 5 BLAZING WIND TT C Y Ho · C S Shum 1 5.4 N
3 1 HAROLD WIN B/XB A Atzeni · K W Lui 12 5.3 N
4 8 COLOURFUL WINNER CP1 M L Yeung · W Y So 11 60.0 N
5 9 DRAGON JOY SR1 B Avdulla · P F Yiu 13 19.0 1-3/4
6 4 NEW FUTURE FOLKS B Thompson · C W Chang 10 9.1 2-1/4
7 7 MONARCH COUNTY TT1 H Bowman · C Fownes 9 17.0 2-1/2
8 12 CIRCUIT VICTORY K C Leung · K L Man 2 27.0 2-3/4
9 10 KING OBERON L Hewitson · D J Whyte 3 16.0 3
10 3 MOTOMAN B/TT M F Poon · P C Ng 7 75.0 4-1/4
11 2 COURIER ALADDIN CP/XB/TT Z Purton · J Richards 14 3.4 5
12 14 SILVER DESTINY B/TT2 Y L Chung · C H Yip 8 51.0 6-1/4
13 11 LIFE OF STONE CP1 C L Chau · T P Yung 5 106.0 8-1/4
14 6 DECRELOT CP1 H Bentley · D A Hayes 6 59.0 10-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PATCH OF TIME2. BLAZING WIND+0.05L3. HAROLD WIN+0.05L4. COLOURFUL WINNER+0.05L5. DRAGON JOY+1.75L6. NEW FUTURE FOLKS+2.25L7. MONARCH COUNTY+2.5L8. CIRCUIT VICTORY+2.75L9. KING OBERON+3L10. MOTOMAN+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick COURIER ALADDIN (27.7%) finished 11th — the winner PATCH OF TIME was rated #4. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 COURIER ALADDIN 27.7% 3.61 11
2 7 MONARCH COUNTY 11.9% 8.37 7
3 4 NEW FUTURE FOLKS 11.3% 8.85 6
4 13 PATCH OF TIME 9.3% 10.72 1
5 1 HAROLD WIN 9.0% 11.15 3
6 5 BLAZING WIND 6.8% 14.78 2
7 10 KING OBERON 6.5% 15.48 9
8 6 DECRELOT 3.6% 27.62 14
9 8 COLOURFUL WINNER 3.6% 27.79 4
10 12 CIRCUIT VICTORY 3.0% 33.62 8
11 9 DRAGON JOY 2.9% 34.39 5
12 14 SILVER DESTINY 1.9% 51.41 12
13 3 MOTOMAN 1.6% 62.10 10
14 11 LIFE OF STONE 0.9% 112.85 13
COURIER ALADDINMONARCH COUNTYNEW FUTURE FOLKSPATCH OF TIME — wonHAROLD WINBLAZING WINDKING OBERONDECRELOTCOLOURFUL WINNERCIRCUIT VICTORYDRAGON JOYSILVER DESTINYMOTOMANLIFE OF STONE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 63

PLACE

1 20.5

5 18

13 22

QUINELLA

5,13 164.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,5 66.5

1,13 63.5

5,13 58

FORECAST

13,5 354

TIERCE

13,5,1 2,315

TRIO

1,5,13 363

FIRST 4

1,5,8,13 3,645

QUARTET

13,5,1,8 56,137

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

4,6,10/1,5,13 14,795

5TH DOUBLE

10/5 20.5

10/13 260.5

TRIPLE TRIO

2,3,13/4,6,10/1,5,13 7,998,616

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

2,3,13/4,6,10/Any Combination 32,176