Happy Valley · 2024-10-27 · 06:45
Race 1
Race 1 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-27 was Class 5 over 1200m. SPICY SO SMART, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by W K Mo, won by N, with SUPER ELITE second and CHEER FOR SOUTH third. The 4.5 favourite COUNTRY DANCER finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | SPICY SO SMART B-/V1/TT 1.10.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 1 | 10.0 | N |
| 2 | 4 | SUPER ELITE B/H/XB K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 5 | 9.2 | N |
| 3 | 10 | CHEER FOR SOUTH V-/PC1 Y L Chung · F C Lor | Y L Chung | F C Lor | 2 | 7.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 3 | COUNTRY DANCER PC Z Purton · J Size | Z Purton | J Size | 3 | 4.5 | 2 |
| 5 | 11 | MORE RICE TT C L Chau · W Y So | C L Chau | W Y So | 11 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 9 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP B K C Leung · P F Yiu | K C Leung | P F Yiu | 6 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | SUNNY SHINES B2/TT1 L Ferraris · D Eustace | L Ferraris | D Eustace | 8 | 55.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 8 | 1 | THE KHAN SR H Bowman · C Fownes | H Bowman | C Fownes | 7 | 4.9 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | WINNING HEART V-/B2/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz | H Bentley | A S Cruz | 9 | 30.0 | 4 |
| 10 | 6 | VIVA A LA B/TT M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 10 | 12.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | SAME TO YOU H/P/TT B Avdulla · M Newnham | B Avdulla | M Newnham | 4 | 6.9 | 8 |
| 12 | 8 | HAPPY FEELING B/SR2/TT B Thompson · J Richards | B Thompson | J Richards | 12 | 71.0 | 8 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | COUNTRY DANCER | 17.0% | 5.87 | 4 |
| 2 | 4 | SUPER ELITE | 17.0% | 5.89 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | THE KHAN | 15.6% | 6.40 | 8 |
| 4 | 5 | SPICY SO SMART | 10.6% | 9.42 | 1 |
| 5 | 10 | CHEER FOR SOUTH | 10.4% | 9.63 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | SAME TO YOU | 8.3% | 12.04 | 11 |
| 7 | 9 | JOYFUL FRIENDSHIP | 6.6% | 15.18 | 6 |
| 8 | 6 | VIVA A LA | 4.3% | 23.50 | 10 |
| 9 | 11 | MORE RICE | 3.5% | 28.19 | 5 |
| 10 | 2 | WINNING HEART | 2.9% | 34.71 | 9 |
| 11 | 12 | SUNNY SHINES | 2.4% | 42.18 | 7 |
| 12 | 8 | HAPPY FEELING | 1.4% | 69.36 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 108.5
PLACE
4 23
5 33.5
10 23.5
QUINELLA
4,5 499.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,5 138
4,10 124.5
5,10 119
FORECAST
5,4 896
TIERCE
5,4,10 6,322
TRIO
4,5,10 957
FIRST 4
3,4,5,10 1,002
QUARTET
5,4,10,3 25,956