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Happy Valley · 2024-10-27 · 07:45

Race 6

Class 4 1800m Course C 11 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-27 was Class 4 over 1800m. CHARITY GAIN, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by D Eustace, won by 2, with ARTHUR'S KINGDOM second and DRAGON STAR third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.2 favourite ARTHUR'S KINGDOM finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.49.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 CHARITY GAIN Closed strongly XB/TT 1.49.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · D Eustace 7 5.6 2
2 10 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM Led early K Teetan · Y S Tsui 1 3.2 2
3 6 DRAGON STAR XB M F Poon · P C Ng 6 10.0 3-1/4
4 11 ME TIME Closed strongly CP/TT A Badel · D J Whyte 2 4.0 3-1/2
5 9 JUBILATION Closed strongly V M L Yeung · W Y So 9 17.0 3-1/2
6 5 PERFECT PAIRING Closed strongly B H Bowman · J Size 3 55.0 3-3/4
7 12 PEGASUS GENERAL V-/B1 M Chadwick · K H Ting 5 19.0 4-1/4
8 2 FOREVER GLORIOUS V/TT A Atzeni · K W Lui 8 19.0 4-1/4
9 3 SERANGOON Closed strongly CP/TT H Bentley · A S Cruz 12 34.0 4-1/2
10 1 VOLCANIC SPARK B B Avdulla · P F Yiu 4 8.0 6-1/4
11 8 HAPPY HERO B L Hewitson · M Newnham 11 19.0 8
4 INTREPID WINNER K De Melo · C W Chang

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. CHARITY GAIN2. ARTHUR'S KINGDOM+2L3. DRAGON STAR+3.25L4. ME TIME+3.5L5. JUBILATION+3.5L6. PERFECT PAIRING+3.75L7. PEGASUS GENERAL+4.25L8. FOREVER GLORIOUS+4.25L9. SERANGOON+4.5L10. VOLCANIC SPARK+6.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick ARTHUR'S KINGDOM (39.9%) finished 2nd — the winner CHARITY GAIN was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 ARTHUR'S KINGDOM 39.9% 2.51 2
2 11 ME TIME 21.1% 4.73 4
3 9 JUBILATION 6.0% 16.78 5
4 3 SERANGOON 5.2% 19.11 9
5 2 FOREVER GLORIOUS 4.7% 21.27 8
6 1 VOLCANIC SPARK 4.6% 21.61 10
7 7 CHARITY GAIN 4.6% 21.68 1
8 12 PEGASUS GENERAL 4.4% 22.83 7
9 6 DRAGON STAR 3.9% 25.44 3
10 8 HAPPY HERO 3.7% 27.01 11
11 5 PERFECT PAIRING 1.8% 55.77 6
ARTHUR'S KINGDOMME TIMEJUBILATIONSERANGOONFOREVER GLORIOUSVOLCANIC SPARKCHARITY GAIN — wonPEGASUS GENERALDRAGON STARHAPPY HEROPERFECT PAIRING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 56.5

PLACE

6 36.5

7 18.5

10 16

QUINELLA

7,10 117.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 124

6,10 70

7,10 51.5

FORECAST

7,10 288

TIERCE

7,10,6 2,244

TRIO

6,7,10 366

FIRST 4

6,7,10,11 300

QUARTET

7,10,6,11 7,794

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,9>6,8/6,7>4,10 17,116

5TH DOUBLE

6,8/4,10 30.5

6,8/7 269.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,3,10/3,9>6,8/6,7>4,10 1,588,846

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,3,10/3,9>6,8/Any Combination 3,352