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Happy Valley · 2024-10-27 · 05:20

Race 2

Class 3 1800m Course C 9 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-27 was Class 3 over 1800m. SHARPEN BRIGHT, ridden by K Teetan and trained by D J Hall, won by NOSE, with RED MAJESTY second and WINNING STEPS third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.1 favourite NOBLE PURSUIT finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.49.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 SHARPEN BRIGHT Closed strongly B 1.49.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · D J Hall 7 4.9 NOSE
2 6 RED MAJESTY Led early B/TT M L Yeung · D A Hayes 1 6.0 NOSE
3 9 WINNING STEPS Closed strongly H/PC M F Poon · P C Ng 2 7.0 1-3/4
4 1 NOBLE PURSUIT Closed strongly TT H Bowman · C Fownes 3 2.1 1-3/4
5 3 ROMANTIC LAOS Closed strongly TT K C Leung · W K Mo 4 11.0 2
6 5 BRIGHT INHERITANCE Closed strongly B A Atzeni · C H Yip 5 28.0 2-3/4
7 4 FORTUNE SUPERSTAR H- B Avdulla · M Newnham 6 11.0 3-1/4
8 2 CALIFORNIA VOCE TT Y L Chung · A S Cruz 8 59.0 4
9 8 SILVER KING P/TT B Thompson · F C Lor 9 77.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SHARPEN BRIGHT2. RED MAJESTY+0.05L3. WINNING STEPS+1.75L4. NOBLE PURSUIT+1.75L5. ROMANTIC LAOS+2L6. BRIGHT INHERITANCE+2.75L7. FORTUNE SUPERSTAR+3.25L8. CALIFORNIA VOCE+4L9. SILVER KING+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick NOBLE PURSUIT (33.3%) finished 4th — the winner SHARPEN BRIGHT was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 NOBLE PURSUIT 33.3% 3.00 4
2 7 SHARPEN BRIGHT 20.4% 4.89 1
3 9 WINNING STEPS 17.6% 5.67 3
4 6 RED MAJESTY 9.3% 10.75 2
5 3 ROMANTIC LAOS 7.0% 14.20 5
6 4 FORTUNE SUPERSTAR 4.9% 20.35 7
7 5 BRIGHT INHERITANCE 4.3% 23.14 6
8 2 CALIFORNIA VOCE 1.9% 52.35 8
9 8 SILVER KING 1.1% 88.57 9
NOBLE PURSUITSHARPEN BRIGHT — wonWINNING STEPSRED MAJESTYROMANTIC LAOSFORTUNE SUPERSTARBRIGHT INHERITANCECALIFORNIA VOCESILVER KING

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 49

PLACE

6 18.5

7 13

9 20.5

QUINELLA

6,7 167

QUINELLA PLACE

6,7 45

6,9 48.5

7,9 46.5

FORECAST

7,6 268

TIERCE

7,6,9 997

TRIO

6,7,9 230

FIRST 4

1,6,7,9 81

QUARTET

7,6,9,1 2,488

All pools (2 more)

1ST DOUBLE

5/6 127.5

5/7 391.5

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,5,10/6,7,9 29,058