Happy Valley · 2024-10-27 · 06:20
Race 4
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-27 was Class 4 over 1200m. DENFIELD, ridden by H Bowman and trained by C S Shum, won by 1-1/4, with YOUNG HORIZON second and LAKESHORE HERO third. The 2.5 favourite LUCKY PLANET finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | DENFIELD TT 1.10.12 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 5 | 2.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 10 | YOUNG HORIZON CP M L Yeung · D A Hayes | M L Yeung | D A Hayes | 7 | 9.8 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | LAKESHORE HERO B1 L Ferraris · D J Hall | L Ferraris | D J Hall | 10 | 15.0 | 4 |
| 4 | 9 | SPEED SWORD TT M F Poon · M Newnham | M F Poon | M Newnham | 3 | 13.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 5 | THE PRIME CP-/B1/TT L Hewitson · J Richards | L Hewitson | J Richards | 9 | 141.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 6 | 6 | LUCKY PLANET B/TT H Bentley · D J Whyte | H Bentley | D J Whyte | 1 | 2.5 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 4 | QINGYUAN STAR CP/TT1 K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 11 | 77.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 8 | ALMIGHTY KICK XB C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 6 | 17.0 | 6 |
| 9 | 11 | VALHALLA XB/TT E C W Wong · C Fownes | E C W Wong | C Fownes | 2 | 13.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 10 | 7 | SWEET DIAMOND TT B Thompson · P F Yiu | B Thompson | P F Yiu | 12 | 56.0 | 8-3/4 |
| 11 | 12 | FUNG B/TT H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 8 | 40.0 | 9 |
| 12 | 2 | YEAH BUDDY B/TT M Chadwick · W K Mo | M Chadwick | W K Mo | 4 | 27.0 | 10 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6 | LUCKY PLANET | 35.7% | 2.80 | 6 |
| 2 | 1 | DENFIELD | 23.8% | 4.21 | 1 |
| 3 | 10 | YOUNG HORIZON | 9.1% | 10.95 | 2 |
| 4 | 8 | ALMIGHTY KICK | 7.0% | 14.27 | 8 |
| 5 | 11 | VALHALLA | 5.7% | 17.45 | 9 |
| 6 | 3 | LAKESHORE HERO | 4.2% | 23.66 | 3 |
| 7 | 9 | SPEED SWORD | 3.7% | 26.89 | 4 |
| 8 | 2 | YEAH BUDDY | 3.5% | 28.93 | 12 |
| 9 | 4 | QINGYUAN STAR | 2.5% | 40.00 | 7 |
| 10 | 12 | FUNG | 2.0% | 50.72 | 11 |
| 11 | 7 | SWEET DIAMOND | 1.8% | 55.64 | 10 |
| 12 | 5 | THE PRIME | 1.0% | 101.09 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 29
PLACE
1 12.5
3 39.5
10 26.5
QUINELLA
1,10 131.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 90.5
1,10 43.5
3,10 211.5
FORECAST
1,10 238
TIERCE
1,10,3 2,364
TRIO
1,3,10 623
FIRST 4
1,3,9,10 1,051
QUARTET
1,10,3,9 13,356
All pools (2 more)
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
4,7,12/1,3,10 178,509
3RD DOUBLE
7/1 153
7/10 125