Happy Valley · 2024-10-27 · 07:15
Race 5
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-27 was Class 4 over 1200m. SMART FIGHTER, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P F Yiu, won by HD, with TACTICAL COMMAND second and TELECOM DRAGON third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | SMART FIGHTER TT 1.10.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · P F Yiu | L Ferraris | P F Yiu | 2 | 2.7 | HD |
| 2 | 9 | TACTICAL COMMAND B A Badel · M Newnham | A Badel | M Newnham | 9 | 12.0 | HD |
| 3 | 3 | TELECOM DRAGON TT M Chadwick · C H Yip | M Chadwick | C H Yip | 1 | 8.1 | N |
| 4 | 7 | GOLDEN DARCI XB K Teetan · D J Hall | K Teetan | D J Hall | 3 | 12.0 | 1/2 |
| 5 | 2 | THE PERFECT MATCH B1/TT H Bowman · C S Shum | H Bowman | C S Shum | 8 | 15.0 | 2 |
| 6 | 11 | SKY PROPHET CP/TT L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 5 | 11.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 1 | ERNEST FEELING B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards | A Hamelin | J Richards | 11 | 25.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 8 | 12 | HOSS B/XB/TT K De Melo · W Y So | K De Melo | W Y So | 4 | 37.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 10 | GIMME FIVE B Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 6 | 3.1 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | INVINCIBLE DELIGHT H B Avdulla · J Size | B Avdulla | J Size | 7 | 150.0 | 7 |
| 11 | 5 | VIGOR ELLEEGANT TT M L Yeung · K L Man | M L Yeung | K L Man | 10 | 91.0 | 8-1/2 |
| — | 6 | DAY DAY VICTORY C L Chau · T P Yung | C L Chau | T P Yung | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | GIMME FIVE | 25.3% | 3.95 | 9 |
| 2 | 8 | SMART FIGHTER | 17.8% | 5.61 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | THE PERFECT MATCH | 15.9% | 6.28 | 5 |
| 4 | 9 | TACTICAL COMMAND | 9.6% | 10.41 | 2 |
| 5 | 7 | GOLDEN DARCI | 7.5% | 13.29 | 4 |
| 6 | 11 | SKY PROPHET | 7.1% | 14.14 | 6 |
| 7 | 3 | TELECOM DRAGON | 5.4% | 18.53 | 3 |
| 8 | 12 | HOSS | 5.3% | 18.75 | 8 |
| 9 | 1 | ERNEST FEELING | 4.3% | 23.13 | 7 |
| 10 | 4 | INVINCIBLE DELIGHT | 1.1% | 90.19 | 10 |
| 11 | 5 | VIGOR ELLEEGANT | 0.6% | 174.27 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 27
PLACE
3 23.5
8 11.5
9 26.5
QUINELLA
8,9 160
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 45
3,9 128
8,9 51
FORECAST
8,9 321
TIERCE
8,9,3 1,744
TRIO
3,8,9 451
FIRST 4
3,7,8,9 793
QUARTET
8,9,3,7 14,550
All pools (2 more)
1ST TREBLE
7/1/6,8 483
7/1/9 153
4TH DOUBLE
1/6,8 129
1/9 40.5