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Happy Valley · 2024-10-27 · 07:15

Race 5

Class 4 1200m Course C 11 runners

Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2024-10-27 was Class 4 over 1200m. SMART FIGHTER, ridden by L Ferraris and trained by P F Yiu, won by HD, with TACTICAL COMMAND second and TELECOM DRAGON third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.10.36
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 SMART FIGHTER TT 1.10.36 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) L Ferraris · P F Yiu 2 2.7 HD
2 9 TACTICAL COMMAND B A Badel · M Newnham 9 12.0 HD
3 3 TELECOM DRAGON TT M Chadwick · C H Yip 1 8.1 N
4 7 GOLDEN DARCI XB K Teetan · D J Hall 3 12.0 1/2
5 2 THE PERFECT MATCH B1/TT H Bowman · C S Shum 8 15.0 2
6 11 SKY PROPHET CP/TT L Hewitson · C Fownes 5 11.0 2-3/4
7 1 ERNEST FEELING B/TT A Hamelin · J Richards 11 25.0 3-1/4
8 12 HOSS B/XB/TT K De Melo · W Y So 4 37.0 3-1/2
9 10 GIMME FIVE B Z Purton · F C Lor 6 3.1 5-1/2
10 4 INVINCIBLE DELIGHT H B Avdulla · J Size 7 150.0 7
11 5 VIGOR ELLEEGANT TT M L Yeung · K L Man 10 91.0 8-1/2
6 DAY DAY VICTORY C L Chau · T P Yung

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SMART FIGHTER2. TACTICAL COMMAND+0.2L3. TELECOM DRAGON+0.05L4. GOLDEN DARCI+0.5L5. THE PERFECT MATCH+2L6. SKY PROPHET+2.75L7. ERNEST FEELING+3.25L8. HOSS+3.5L9. GIMME FIVE+5.5L10. INVINCIBLE DELIGHT+7L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2024-25
The model's top pick GIMME FIVE (25.3%) finished 9th — the winner SMART FIGHTER was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 GIMME FIVE 25.3% 3.95 9
2 8 SMART FIGHTER 17.8% 5.61 1
3 2 THE PERFECT MATCH 15.9% 6.28 5
4 9 TACTICAL COMMAND 9.6% 10.41 2
5 7 GOLDEN DARCI 7.5% 13.29 4
6 11 SKY PROPHET 7.1% 14.14 6
7 3 TELECOM DRAGON 5.4% 18.53 3
8 12 HOSS 5.3% 18.75 8
9 1 ERNEST FEELING 4.3% 23.13 7
10 4 INVINCIBLE DELIGHT 1.1% 90.19 10
11 5 VIGOR ELLEEGANT 0.6% 174.27 11
GIMME FIVESMART FIGHTER — wonTHE PERFECT MATCHTACTICAL COMMANDGOLDEN DARCISKY PROPHETTELECOM DRAGONHOSSERNEST FEELINGINVINCIBLE DELIGHTVIGOR ELLEEGANT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 27

PLACE

3 23.5

8 11.5

9 26.5

QUINELLA

8,9 160

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 45

3,9 128

8,9 51

FORECAST

8,9 321

TIERCE

8,9,3 1,744

TRIO

3,8,9 451

FIRST 4

3,7,8,9 793

QUARTET

8,9,3,7 14,550

All pools (2 more)

1ST TREBLE

7/1/6,8 483

7/1/9 153

4TH DOUBLE

1/6,8 129

1/9 40.5